{"id":12984,"date":"2020-05-01T16:46:00","date_gmt":"2020-05-01T20:46:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=12984"},"modified":"2020-05-01T16:46:45","modified_gmt":"2020-05-01T20:46:45","slug":"every-covid-19-model-has-been-majorly-incorrect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=12984","title":{"rendered":"Every COVID-19 Model Has Been Majorly Incorrect"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>All Of The Coronavirus Models Were Wrong<\/h1>\n<p><!--more-->by Michael Snyder<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/archives\/all-of-the-coronavirus-models-were-wrong\/covid-19-pixabay#main\" rel=\"attachment wp-att-11131\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-large wp-image-11131\" src=\"http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-Pixabay-600x300.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" srcset=\"http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-Pixabay-600x300.jpg 600w, http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-Pixabay-300x150.jpg 300w, http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-Pixabay-768x384.jpg 768w, http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/04\/COVID-19-Pixabay.jpg 1280w\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"300\" \/><\/a>How is it possible that all of the coronavirus models could have been so completely and utterly wrong about what was going to happen?\u00a0 Very early in this pandemic, some models that were predicting millions of deaths caused quite a bit of panic all over the globe.\u00a0 In fact, a projection done by researchers at the Imperial College of London warned that\u00a0<a title=\"40 million people\" href=\"https:\/\/www.businessinsider.com\/covid19-model-predicts-40-million-people-could-die-without-interventions-2020-3\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">40 million people<\/a>\u00a0could die from COVID-19 this year alone.\u00a0 Obviously that estimate was dead wrong, and it has become quite clear that this pandemic is not an \u201cend of the world\u201d scenario.\u00a0 But on the other extreme, there have been a lot of models that were forecasting a relatively low death toll, and those models have been proven to be completely wrong as well.<ins class=\"adsbygoogle\" data-ad-client=\"ca-pub-3031416830421779\" data-ad-slot=\"3941212584\" data-ad-format=\"auto\"><\/ins><\/p>\n<p>For example, the Los Angeles Times\u00a0<a title=\"just published a story\" href=\"https:\/\/www.msn.com\/en-us\/news\/us\/over-60000-lives-claimed-by-covid-19-in-us-%e2%80%94-a-tally-some-models-predicted-for-late-summer\/ar-BB13ofcw\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">just published a story<\/a>\u00a0that discussed the fact that a number of models had projected that the U.S. would not reach 60,000 deaths until \u201clate summer\u201d\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The death toll from COVID-19 reached nearly 60,200 in the United States on Wednesday, and confirmed cases surpassed 1 million, according to Johns Hopkins University. Some models had suggested the U.S. would not reach this milestone until late summer.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Well, we\u00a0<a title=\"just blew by that figure\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">just blew by that figure<\/a>\u00a0and we are rapidly moving up toward 70,000 deaths.<\/p>\n<p>During the 24 hour period that just ended, another 2,390 Americans died from COVID-19, and the number of daily deaths is likely to escalate as some states attempt to \u201creopen\u201d in the weeks ahead.<\/p>\n<p>But a prominent model that the Trump administration\u00a0<a title=\"has been relying on very heavily\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cnn.com\/2020\/04\/13\/health\/ihme-model-death-predictions\/index.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">has been relying on very heavily<\/a>\u00a0had been projecting that there would not be a single U.S. death from the coronavirus after June 21st\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>An influential model cited by the White House predicts that coronavirus deaths will come to a halt this summer, with zero deaths projected in the United States after June 21.<\/p>\n<p>Not a single person will die in the ensuing month and a half, according to the model, which makes predictions until August.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Obviously some U.S. officials must strongly disagree with that sort of a projection, because\u00a0<a title=\"the Wall Street Journal is reporting\" href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/u-s-buys-more-body-bags-preparing-for-worst-case-cornavirus-scenario-11588172780\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">the Wall Street Journal is reporting<\/a>\u00a0that the federal government just ordered 100,000 more body bags\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The federal government ordered 100,000 new Covid-19 body bags, in what officials described as preparations for a \u201cworst case\u201d scenario.<\/p>\n<p>The giant order last week for \u201chuman remains pouches\u201d comes as more than 58,000 Americans have died from Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>That would seem to be a tremendous waste of money if this pandemic is essentially going to be over in June.<\/p>\n<p>Of course the truth is that this pandemic is not going to end any time soon, and every day we continue to get more indications that it is going to be much more grisly than many had originally anticipated.\u00a0 For instance, on Wednesday police in New York found\u00a0<a title=\"dozens of dead bodies\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/04\/29\/bodies-stored-in-trucks-at-brooklyn-funeral-home-sources\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">dozens of dead bodies<\/a>\u00a0stored in trucks outside a funeral home\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Police found dozens of bodies being stored in unrefrigerated trucks outside a Brooklyn\u00a0<a title=\"funeral home\" href=\"https:\/\/nypost.com\/2020\/04\/18\/dead-bodies-pile-up-outside-nyc-funeral-home-amid-coronavirus-pandemic\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">funeral home<\/a>\u00a0and lying on the facility\u2019s floor Wednesday, law enforcement sources told The Post.<\/p>\n<p>Between 40 to 60 bodies were discovered either stacked up in U-Haul box trucks outside Andrew Cleckley Funeral Services in Flatlands or on the building\u2019s floor, after neighbors reported a foul odor around the property, sources said.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>And the entire nation was stunned to learn that almost 70 people have died\u00a0<a title=\"at a home for aging veterans in Massachusetts\" href=\"https:\/\/www.military.com\/daily-news\/2020\/04\/29\/nearly-70-dead-horrific-outbreak-veterans-home.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">at a home for aging veterans in Massachusetts<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Nearly 70 residents sickened with the coronavirus have died at a Massachusetts home for aging veterans, as state and federal officials try to figure out what went wrong in the deadliest known outbreak at a long-term care facility in the U.S.<\/p>\n<p>While the death toll at the state-run Holyoke Soldiers\u2019 Home continues to climb, federal officials are investigating whether residents were denied proper medical care and the state\u2019s top prosecutor is deciding whether to bring legal action.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>While it is true that this pandemic is not \u201cthe end of the world\u201d, nobody out there should be attempting to claim that it is a \u201cnothingburger\u201d either.\u00a0 Just check the carnage that authorities in Ecuador\u00a0<a title=\"have been dealing with\" href=\"https:\/\/news.yahoo.com\/torment-ecuador-virus-dead-piled-bathrooms-013235232.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">have been dealing with<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Front line medics in one of Latin America\u2019s coronavirus epicenters are lifting the lid on the daily horrors they face in an Ecuadoran city whose health system has collapsed.<\/p>\n<p>In one hospital in Guayaquil overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients, staff have had to pile up bodies in bathrooms because the morgues are full, health workers say.<\/p>\n<p>In another, a medic told AFP that doctors have been forced to wrap up and store corpses to be able to reuse the beds they died on.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The only reason why we haven\u2019t seen a lot of other health systems around the world get overwhelmed is because most of the planet is shut down right now.<\/p>\n<p>As some parts of the globe attempt to \u201creopen\u201d, it is inevitable that cases will start to surge again in those areas.\u00a0 In fact, that is precisely what is starting to happen\u00a0<a title=\"in Germany\" href=\"https:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/world\/europe\/coronavirus-germany-infection-rate-lockdown-social-distancing-lothar-wieler-a9490161.html?utm_source=fark&amp;utm_medium=website&amp;utm_content=link&amp;ICID=ref_fark\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">in Germany<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Sadly, this pandemic has become highly politicized at this point, and there are many out there that would love to exploit it for their own nefarious purposes.\u00a0 For example, Hillary Clinton told Joe Biden during an online town hall that\u00a0<a title=\"\u201cthis would be a terrible crisis to waste\u201d\" href=\"https:\/\/www.breitbart.com\/health\/2020\/04\/28\/hillary-clinton-coronavirus-would-be-a-terrible-crisis-to-waste-need-universal-health-care\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">\u201cthis would be a terrible crisis to waste\u201d<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>This is a high-stakes time, because of the pandemic. But this is also a really high-stakes election. And every form of health care should continue to be available, including reproductive health care for every woman in this country. And then it needs to be part of a much larger system that eventually \u2014 and quickly, I hope \u2014 gets us to universal health care. [Biden nods] So I can only say, \u201cAmen,\u201d to everything you\u2019re saying, but also to, again, enlist people that this would be a terrible crisis to waste, as the old saying goes. [Biden nods] We\u2019ve learned a lot about what our absolute frailties are in our country when it comes to health justice and economic justice.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Instead of dividing us even more deeply as a nation, this pandemic should be bringing us together.\u00a0 And hopefully that will happen, because\u00a0<a title=\"even greater challenges are in our future\" href=\"http:\/\/themostimportantnews.com\/archives\/michael-snyders-warning-to-america\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">even greater challenges are in our future<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>But for now, we still have a very long battle with this virus ahead of us.<\/p>\n<p>Many more Americans are going to get sick and many more Americans are going to die, and we really don\u2019t have any idea what the final numbers are going to look like because all of the \u201cscientific models\u201d have been dead wrong so far.<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/archives\/all-of-the-coronavirus-models-were-wrong\">http:\/\/endoftheamericandream.com\/archives\/all-of-the-coronavirus-models-were-wrong<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>All Of The Coronavirus Models Were Wrong<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12984","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12984","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12984"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12984\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12984"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12984"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12984"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}