Douglas Macgregor
\nThe American Conservative<\/p>\n
The crisis of American national power has begun. America\u2019s economy is\u00a0tipping over<\/a>, and Western\u00a0financial markets<\/a>\u00a0are quietly\u00a0panicking<\/a>. Imperiled by rising interest rates, mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries are losing their value. The market\u2019s proverbial \u201cvibes<\/a>\u201d\u2014feelings, emotions, beliefs, and psychological penchants\u2014suggest a dark turn is underway inside the American economy.<\/p>\n American national power is measured as much by American military capability as by economic potential and performance. The growing realization that American and\u00a0European military-industrial capacity<\/a>\u00a0cannot keep up\u00a0with\u00a0<\/a>Ukrainian<\/a>\u00a0demands for ammunition<\/a>\u00a0and equipment is an ominous signal to send during a proxy war that Washington insists its Ukrainian surrogate is winning.<\/p>\n Russian economy-of-force operations in southern Ukraine appear to have successfully ground down attacking Ukrainian forces with the minimal expenditure of Russian lives and resources. While Russia\u2019s implementation of\u00a0attrition warfare<\/a>\u00a0worked brilliantly, Russia mobilized\u00a0its reserves of men and equipment<\/a>\u00a0to field a force that is several magnitudes larger and significantly more lethal than it was a year ago.<\/p>\n Russia\u2019s massive arsenal of artillery systems including rockets, missiles, and drones linked to overhead surveillance platforms\u00a0converted Ukrainian soldiers fighting<\/a>\u00a0to retain the northern edge of the Donbas into pop-up targets. How many\u00a0Ukrainian soldiers have died<\/a>\u00a0is unknown, but\u00a0one recent estimate<\/a>\u00a0wagers between 150,000-200,000 Ukrainians have been killed in action since the war began, while\u00a0another<\/a>\u00a0estimates about 250,000.<\/p>\n Given\u00a0the glaring weakness of NATO<\/a>\u00a0members\u2019 ground, air, and air defense forces, an unwanted war with Russia could easily bring hundreds of thousands of\u00a0Russian Troops to the Polish border<\/a>, NATO\u2019s Eastern Frontier. This is not an outcome Washington promised its European allies, but it\u2019s now a real possibility.<\/p>\n In contrast to the Soviet Union\u2019s hamfisted and ideologically driven foreign policymaking and execution, contemporary\u00a0Russia has skillfully cultivated<\/a>\u00a0support for its cause in Latin America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. The fact that the West\u2019s economic sanctions\u00a0damaged the U.S. and European economies<\/a>\u00a0while turning the Russian ruble into one of the international system\u2019s strongest currencies has hardly enhanced Washington\u2019s global standing.<\/p>\n Biden\u2019s policy of forcibly pushing NATO to Russia\u2019s borders forged a strong commonality of security and trade interests between Moscow and Beijing that is attracting strategic partners in South Asia like India, and partners like Brazil in Latin America. The global economic implications for the\u00a0emerging Russo-Chinese axis<\/a>\u00a0and their planned industrial revolution for some 3.9 billion people in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) are profound.<\/p>\n In sum, Washington\u2019s military strategy to weaken, isolate, or even destroy Russia is a colossal failure and the failure puts Washington\u2019s proxy war with Russia on a truly dangerous path. To press on, undeterred in the face of Ukraine\u2019s descent into oblivion, ignores three metastasizing threats: 1. Persistently\u00a0high inflation and rising interest rates<\/a>\u00a0that signal economic weakness. (The first\u00a0American bank failure<\/a>\u00a0since 2020 is a reminder of U.S. financial fragility.) 2. The threat to stability and prosperity inside European societies already reeling from several waves of\u00a0unwanted refugees\/migrants<\/a>. 3. The threat of a\u00a0wider European war<\/a>.<\/p>\n Inside presidential administrations, there are always competing factions urging the president to adopt a particular course of action. Observers on the outside seldom know with certainty which faction exerts the most influence, but there are figures in the Biden administration seeking an off-ramp from involvement in Ukraine. Even\u00a0Secretary of State Antony Blinken, a rabid supporter<\/a>\u00a0of the proxy war with Moscow, recognizes that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky\u2019s demand that the West help him recapture Crimea is a red line for Putin that might lead to a dramatic escalation from Moscow.<\/p>\n Backing down from the Biden administration\u2019s malignant and asinine demands for a humiliating Russian withdrawal from eastern Ukraine before peace talks can convene is a step Washington refuses to take. Yet it must be taken. The higher\u00a0interest rates rise<\/a>, and the more Washington spends at home and abroad\u00a0to prosecute the war<\/a>\u00a0in Ukraine, the closer American society moves toward internal political and social turmoil. These are\u00a0dangerous conditions<\/a> for any republic.<\/p>\n From all the wreckage and confusion of the last two years, there emerges one undeniable truth.\u00a0Most Americans are<\/a>\u00a0right to be distrustful of and dissatisfied with their government. President Biden comes across as a cardboard cut-out, a stand-in for ideological fanatics in his administration, people that see executive power as the means to\u00a0silence political opposition<\/a>\u00a0and retain permanent control of the federal government.<\/p>\n Americans are not fools. They know that members of Congress\u00a0flagrantly trade stocks<\/a>\u00a0based on inside information, creating conflicts of interest that would land most citizens in jail. They also know that since 1965 Washington led them into a series of failed military interventions that severely\u00a0weakened American<\/a>\u00a0political, economic, and military power.<\/p>\n Far too many Americans believe they have had no real national leadership since January 21, 2021. It is high time the Biden administration found an off-ramp designed to extricate Washington, D.C., from its proxy Ukrainian war against Russia. It will not be easy. Liberal internationalism or, in its modern guise, \u201cmoralizing globalism,\u201d makes prudent diplomacy arduous, but now is the time. In Eastern Europe, the spring rains present both Russian and Ukrainian ground forces with\u00a0a sea of mud<\/a>\u00a0that severely impedes movement. But the Russian High Command is preparing to ensure that when the ground dries and Russian ground forces attack, the operations will achieve an unambiguous decision, making it clear that Washington and its supporters have no chance to rescue the dying regime in Kiev. From then on, negotiations will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.<\/p>\n