Analysis<\/h3>\n
Well, my first though when reading these bullet points is that General Qasem Soleimani has already struck out at Uncle Shmuel from beyond his grave<\/strong>.\u00a0 What we see here is an immense political disaster unfolding like a slow motion train wreck.\u00a0 Make no mistake, this is not just a tactical \u201coopsie\u201d, but a major STRATEGIC disaster<\/strong>.\u00a0 Why?<\/p>\n For one thing, the US will now become an official and totally illegal military presence in Iraq.\u00a0 This means that whatever SOFA (Status Of Forces Agreement) the US and Iraq had until now is void.<\/p>\n Second, the US now has two options:<\/p>\n Both of these are very bad because whatever option Uncle Shmuel chooses, he will lost whatever tiny level of credibility he has left, even amongst his putative \u201callies\u201d (like the KSA which will now be left nose to nose with a much more powerful Iran than ever before).<\/p>\n The main problem with the current (and very provisional) outcome is that both the Israel Lobby and the Oil Lobby will now be absolutely outraged and will demand that the US try to use military power to regime change both Iraq and Iran.<\/p>\n Needless to say, that ain\u2019t happening (only ignorant and incurable flag-wavers believe the silly claptrap about the US armed forces being \u201cTHE BEST\u201d).<\/p>\n Furthermore, it is clear that by it\u2019s latest terrorist action the USA has now declared war on BOTH Iraq and Iran.<\/p>\n This is so important that I need to repeat it again:<\/p>\n The USA is now at war, de-facto<\/em> and de-jure<\/em>, with BOTH Iraq and Iran.<\/strong><\/p>\n I hasten to add that the US is also at war with most of the Muslim world<\/strong> (and most definitely all Shias, including Hezbollah and the Yemeni Houthis).<\/p>\n Next, I want to mention the increase in US troop numbers in the Middle-East.\u00a0 An additional 3\u2019000 soldiers from the 82nd AB is what would be needed to support evacuations and to provide a reserve force for the Marines already sent in.\u00a0 This is NOWHERE NEAR the kind of troop numbers the US would need to fight a war with either Iraq or Iran.<\/p>\n Finally, there are some who think that the US will try to invade Iran.\u00a0 Well, with a commander in chief as narcissistically delusional as Trump, I would never say \u201cnever\u201d but, frankly, I don\u2019t think that anybody at the Pentagon would be willing to obey such an order.\u00a0 So no, a ground invasion is not in the cards and, if it ever becomes an realistic option we would first see a massive increase in the US troop levels, we are talking several tens of thousands, if not more (depending on the actual plan).<\/p>\n No, what the US will do if\/when they attack Iran is what Israel did to Lebanon in 2006, but at a much larger scale.\u00a0 They will begin by a huge number of airstrikes (missiles and aircraft) to hit:<\/p>\n Then, within about 24-48 hours the US President will go on air an announce to the world that it is \u201cmission accomplished\u201d and that \u201cTHE BEST\u201d military forces in the galaxy have taught a lesson to the \u201cMollahs\u201d.\u00a0 There will be dances in the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem (right until the moment the Iranian missiles will start dropping from the sky.\u00a0 At which point the dances will be replaced by screams about a \u201c2nd Hitler\u201d and the \u201cHolocaust\u201d).<\/p>\n Then all hell will break loose (I have discussed that so often in the past that I won\u2019t go into details here).<\/p>\n In conclusion, I want to mention something more personal about the people of the US.<\/p>\n Roughly speaking, there are two main groups which I observed during my many years of life in the USA.<\/p>\n Group one<\/strong>: is the TV-watching imbeciles who think that the talking heads on the idiot box actually share real knowledge and expertise.\u00a0 As a result, their thinking goes along the following lines: \u201cyeah, yeah, say what you want, but if the mollahs make a wrong move, we will simply nuke them; a few neutron bombs will take care of these sand niggers<\/em>\u201c.\u00a0 And if asked about the ethics of this stance, the usual answer is a \u201cf**k them! they messed with the wrong guys, now they will get their asses kicked<\/em>\u201c.<\/p>\n Group two<\/strong>: is a much quieter group.\u00a0 It includes both people who see themselves as liberals and conservatives.\u00a0 They are totally horrified and they feel a silent rage against the US political elites.\u00a0 Friends, there are A LOT of US Americans out there who are truly horrified by what is done in their name and who feel absolutely powerless to do anything about it.\u00a0 I don\u2019t know about the young soldiers who are now being sent to the Middle-East, but I know a lot of former servicemen who know the truth about war and about THE BEST military in the history of the galaxy and they are also absolutely horrified.<\/p>\n I can\u2019t say which group is bigger, but my gut feeling is that Group Two is much bigger than Group One.\u00a0 I might be wrong.<\/p>\n I am now signing off but I will try to update you here as soon as any important info comes in.<\/p>\n The Saker<\/p>\n UPDATE1<\/strong>: according to the Russian website Colonel Cassad<\/a>, Moqtada al-Sadr has officially made the following demands to the Iraqi government:<\/p>\n Cassad (aka Boris Rozhin) also posted this excellent caricature:<\/p>\n UPDATE2:<\/strong> RT is reporting that \u201cOne US service member, two contractors killed in Al-Shabaab attack in Kenya, two DoD personnel injured<\/a>\u201c.\u00a0 Which just goes to prove my point that spontaneous attacks are what we will be seeing first and that the retaliation promised by Iran will only come later.<\/p>\n UPDATE3<\/strong>: al-Manar reports that two rockets have landed near the US embassy in Baghdad.<\/p>\n\n
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