{"id":34182,"date":"2020-10-31T16:23:04","date_gmt":"2020-10-31T20:23:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=34182"},"modified":"2020-10-31T16:23:04","modified_gmt":"2020-10-31T20:23:04","slug":"the-polls-were-very-wrong-in-2016-and-will-be-even-more-wrong-in-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=34182","title":{"rendered":"The polls were very wrong in 2016 and will be even more wrong in 2020."},"content":{"rendered":"

Here Is The Result If The Polls Are As Wrong In 2020 As They Were In 2016<\/h1>\n

ZeroHedge.com<\/p>\n

While very fluid, we can track the latest results of the electronic prediction markets and polling data.<\/p>\n

PredictIt currently has a 66% probability for a Biden victory<\/a>, which is up from a week ago at 62.9% and also higher than four weeks ago, although as usual one has to be aware of just how\u00a0little capital\u00a0<\/a>needs to be deployed to manipulate the illiquid PredictIt market (something every prominent Democratic financier with deep pockets would be well aware of in seeking to manipulate public sentiment in the cheapest possible way). A Trump victory has a roughly 39% probability according to this data, which is up slightly from 37.1% a week ago. The national polls \u2013 compiled by Real Clear Politics – suggest a similar tilt in the race with Biden having a 51.3%-43.5% lead against Trump.<\/p>\n

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Digging into the state polling in competitive states, Biden currently leads in all the battleground, or “toss up” states except for Ohio, Arizona and Texas. This would give him a comfortable Electoral College (EC) victory of 346-192…<\/p>\n

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… even though RCP’s average polls of Top Battleground states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ), is now just +3.1 in Biden’s favor and down from 5% to weeks ago, with Arizona just flipping to Trump in the past 24 hours.<\/p>\n

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That said, polls are imperfect as 2016 demonstrated \u2013 indeed, if we apply the polling miss from 2016 as Bank of America did last week, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and and Maine would flip. For this exercise we have used the latest RCP polling average data as of Oct 31:<\/p>\n