{"id":38377,"date":"2020-11-24T18:27:19","date_gmt":"2020-11-24T22:27:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=38377"},"modified":"2020-11-24T18:27:19","modified_gmt":"2020-11-24T22:27:19","slug":"the-only-way-out-of-this-is-herd-immunity","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=38377","title":{"rendered":"The only way out of this is HERD IMMUNITY!"},"content":{"rendered":"

Herd Immunity Threshold Now Expected By Mid-2021<\/h2>\n

By Jim Reid, chief credit strategist at Deutsche Bank<\/em><\/p>\n

Monday\u2019s are the new Friday\u2019s. AstraZeneca\/Oxford Uni kept the vaccine Monday theme going this morning by revealing their vaccine is effective (70% average) albeit with the tantalising prospect that the technique that suggested 90% effectiveness (half dose first followed by the full dose) could be used for all rather than the 62% effective treatment (two full dosages). In terms of why a half dose might be more effective first it could be with how it better primes the immune system.<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s\u00a0chart of the day\u00a0<\/em>updates when we could first vaccinate the vulnerable and then achieve herd immunity in the G10 if we assume that AstraZenenca\/Oxford eventually migrates to the 90% efficacy rate, one and a half doses are used, and we assume pre-orders are filled on time for the three vaccines to report so far.\u00a0Japan and the UK would be first, shortly followed by the US with Australia and the EU lagging a bit but there by around the end of H1.\u00a0<\/strong>Although logistics may slow things down, remember other vaccines could come on stream and accelerate the process.<\/p>\n

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For EM much is hanging on AstraZeneca\/Oxford. It is substantially cheaper with EM countries being offered it at cost which is part of the reason it has been pre-ordered by so many of them. It has the real opportunity to provide a global solution. If the half dose\/full dose technique is proved to be more effective it will also reduce the volume of vaccine used meaning more can go around.<\/p>\n

Other advantages are that it uses well known vaccine technology rather than the new m-MRA technique used by Pfizer\/BioNTech and Moderna which may encourage wider uptake, and also that it can be stored at fridge temperature for six months relative to the -70C to -20C for Pfizer, and -20C for Moderna (can be stored in a fridge for a week before use).<\/p>\n

Overall the Monday news from the last couple of weeks has been an incredible victory for science and a personal view is that we\u2019ll be getting back very close to normal life in Q2 2021.<\/p>\n

___
\nhttps:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/herd-immunity-threshold-now-expected-mid-2021<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Herd Immunity Threshold Now Expected By Mid-2021<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-38377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38377","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=38377"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/38377\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=38377"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=38377"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=38377"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}