{"id":59733,"date":"2021-04-10T13:54:52","date_gmt":"2021-04-10T17:54:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=59733"},"modified":"2021-04-10T13:54:52","modified_gmt":"2021-04-10T17:54:52","slug":"the-us-warmongering-in-the-ukraine-is-all-about-destroying-relations-between-russia-and-germany","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=59733","title":{"rendered":"The US Warmongering in the Ukraine is all about Destroying Relations Between Russia and Germany"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ukraine Redux – War, Russophobia, & Pipelineistan<\/h1>\n

by Pepe Escobar
\nThe Asia Times<\/p>\n

The deep state\/NATO combo’s using Kiev to start a war to bury Nord Stream 2 and German-Russian relations…<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/picture><\/a>A Ukrainian serviceman walks in a fortified position at the front line with Russia-backed separatists not far away, in Avdiivka, Donetsk region, on April 5, 2021. Photo: AFP<\/em><\/h5>\n

Ukraine and Russia may be on the brink of war \u2013 with dire consequences for the whole of Eurasia. Let\u2019s cut to the chase, and plunge head-on into the fog of war.<\/strong><\/p>\n

On March 24, Ukrainian President Zelensky, for all practical purposes, signed a\u00a0declaration of war<\/a>\u00a0against Russia, via decree No. 117\/2021.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky speaks during a joint press conference with European Council President in Kiev on March 3, 2021. Photo: AFP \/ Sergey Dolzhenko<\/em><\/h5>\n

The decree establishes that retaking Crimea from Russia is now Kiev\u2019s official policy.\u00a0<\/strong>That\u2019s exactly what prompted an array of Ukrainian battle tanks to be shipped east on flatbed rail cars, following the saturation of the Ukrainian army by the US with military equipment including unmanned aerial vehicles, electronic warfare systems, anti-tank systems and man-portable air defense systems (MANPADS).<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

More crucially, the Zelensky decree is the proof any subsequent war will have been prompted by Kiev, debunking the proverbial claims of \u201cRussian aggression.\u201d Crimea, since the referendum of March 2014, is part of the Russian Federation.<\/p>\n

It was\u00a0this<\/em>\u00a0(italics mine) de facto declaration of war, which Moscow took very seriously, that prompted the deployment of extra Russian forces to Crimea and closer to the Russian border with Donbass. Significantly, these include the crack 76th\u00a0Guards Air Assault Brigade, known as the Pskov paratroopers and, according to an intel report quoted to me, capable of taking Ukraine in only six hours.<\/p>\n

It certainly does not help that in early April US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, fresh from his former position as a board member of missile manufacturer Raytheon, called Zelensky to promise \u201cunwavering US support for Ukraine\u2019s sovereignty.\u201d\u00a0<\/strong>That ties in with Moscow\u2019s interpretation that Zelensky would never have signed his decree without a green light from Washington.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n

On March 8, 2021, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaks during observance of International Women\u2019s Day in the East Room of the White House in Washington, DC. Photo: AFP \/ Mandel Ngan<\/em><\/h5>\n

Controlling the narrative<\/strong><\/u><\/h3>\n

Sevastopol, already when I visited in\u00a0December 2018<\/a>, is one of the most heavily defended places on the planet, impervious even to a NATO attack. In his decree, Zelensky specifically identifies Sevastopol as a prime target.<\/p>\n

Once again, we\u2019re back to 2014 post-Maidan unfinished business.<\/p>\n

To contain Russia, the US deep state\/NATO combo needs to control the Black Sea \u2013 which, for all practical purposes, is now a Russian lake. And to control the Black Sea, they need to \u201cneutralize\u201d Crimea.<\/strong><\/p>\n

If any extra proof was necessary, it was provided by Zelensky himself on Tuesday this week in a\u00a0phone call\u00a0<\/a>with NATO secretary-general and docile puppet Jens Stoltenberg.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg gives a press conference at the end of a NATO Foreign Ministers\u2019 meeting at the Alliance\u2019s headquarters in Brussels on March 24, 2021. Photo: AFP \/ Olivier Hoslet<\/em><\/h5>\n

Zelensky uttered the key phrase: \u201cNATO is the only way to end the war in Donbass\u201d \u2013 which means, in practice, NATO expanding its \u201cpresence\u201d in the Black Sea. \u201cSuch a permanent presence should be a powerful deterrent to Russia, which continues the large-scale militarization of the region and hinders merchant shipping.\u201d<\/p>\n

All of these crucial developments are and will continue to be invisible to global public opinion when it comes to the predominant, hegemon-controlled narrative.<\/strong><\/p>\n

The deep state\/NATO combo is imprinting 24\/7 that whatever happens next is due to \u201cRussian aggression.\u201d Even if the Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) launch a blitzkrieg against the Lugansk and Donetsk People\u2019s Republics. (To do so against Sevastopol in Crimea would be certified mass suicide).<\/p>\n

In the United States, Ron Paul has been one of the very few voices to\u00a0state the obvious:<\/a><\/p>\n

\u201cAccording to the media branch of the US military-industrial-congressional-media complex, Russian troop movements are not a response to clear threats from a neighbor, but instead are just more \u2018Russian aggression.\u2019\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

What\u2019s implied is that Washington\/Brussels don\u2019t have a clear tactical, much less strategic game plan: only total narrative control.<\/strong><\/p>\n

And that is fueled by rabid Russophobia \u2013\u00a0masterfully deconstructed<\/a>\u00a0by the indispensable Andrei Martyanov, one of the world\u2019s top military analysts.<\/p>\n

A possibly hopeful sign is that on March 31, the chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, General Valery Gerasimov, and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, talked on the phone about the proverbial \u201cissues of mutual interest.\u201d<\/p>\n

Days later, a\u00a0Franco-German statement\u00a0<\/a>came out, calling on \u201call parties\u201d to de-escalate. Merkel and Macron seem to have gotten the message in their videoconference with Putin \u2013 who must have subtly alluded to the effect generated by Kalibrs, Kinzhals and assorted hypersonic weapons if the going gets tough and the Europeans sanction a Kiev blitzkrieg.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n

French President Emmanuel Macron speaks as German Chancellor Angela Merkel looks on after a German-French Security Council video conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on February 5, 2021. Photo: AFP \/ Thibault Camus<\/em><\/h5>\n

The problem is Merkel and Macron don\u2019t control NATO.<\/strong>\u00a0Yet Merkel and Macron at least are fully aware that if the US\/NATO combo attacks Russian forces or Russian passport holders who live in Donbass, the devastating response will target the command centers that coordinated the attacks.<\/p>\n

What does the hegemon want?<\/strong><\/u><\/h3>\n

As part of his current Energizer bunny act, Zelensky made an extra eyebrow-raising move. This past Monday, he visited Qatar with a lofty delegation and clinched\u00a0a raft of deals<\/a>, not circumscribed to LNG but also including direct Kiev-Doha flights; Doha leasing or buying a Black Sea port; and strong \u201cdefense\/military ties\u201d \u2013 which could be a lovely euphemism for a possible transfer of jihadis from Libya and Syria to fight Russian infidels in Donbass.<\/p>\n

Right on cue, Zelensly meets Turkey\u2019s Erdogan next Monday. Erdogan\u2019s intel services run the jihadi proxies in Idlib, and dodgy Qatari funds are still part of the picture. Arguably, the Turks are already\u00a0transferring<\/a>\u00a0those \u201cmoderate rebels\u201d to Ukraine. Russian intel is meticulously monitoring all this activity.<\/p>\n

A series of informed discussions \u2013 see, for instance,\u00a0here\u00a0<\/a>and\u00a0here<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 is converging on what may be the top three targets for the hegemon amid all this mess, short of war: to provoke an irreparable fissure between Russia and the EU, under NATO auspices; to crash the Nord Steam 2 pipeline; and to boost profits in the weapons business for the military-industral complex.<\/p>\n

So the key question then is whether Moscow would be able to apply a Sun Tzu move short of being lured into a hot war in the Donbass.<\/strong><\/p>\n

On the ground, the outlook is grim. Denis Pushilin, one of the top leaders of the Lugansk and Donetsk people\u2019s republics, has stated that the chances of avoiding war are \u201cextremely small.\u201d Serbian sniper Dejan Beric \u2013 whom I met in Donetsk in 2015 and who is a certified expert on the ground \u2013 expects a Kiev\u00a0attack in early May<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The extremely controversial Igor Strelkov, who may be termed an exponent of \u201corthodox socialism,\u201d a sharp critic of the Kremlin\u2019s policies who is one of the very few warlords who survived after 2014, has\u00a0unequivocally stated<\/a>\u00a0that the only chance for peace is for the Russian army to control Ukrainian territory at least up to the Dnieper river. He stresses that a war in April is \u201cvery likely\u201d; for Russia war \u201cnow\u201d is better than war later; and there\u2019s a 99% possibility that Washington will not fight for Ukraine.<\/p>\n

On this last item at least Strelkov has a point; Washington and NATO want a war fought to the last Ukrainian.<\/p>\n

Rostislav Ischenko, the top Russian analyst of Ukraine whom I had the pleasure of meeting in Moscow in late 2018, persuasively\u00a0argues<\/a>\u00a0that,\u00a0\u201cthe overall diplomatic, military, political, financial and economic situation powerfully requires the Kiev authorities to intensify combat operations in Donbass.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201cBy the way,\u201d\u00a0<\/strong>Ischenko added,\u00a0\u201cthe Americans do not give a damn whether Ukraine will hold out for any time or whether it will be blown to pieces in an instant. They believe they stand to gain from either outcome.\u201d<\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Gotta defend Europe<\/strong><\/u><\/h3>\n

Let\u2019s assume the worst in Donbass. Kiev launches its blitzkrieg. Russian intel documents everything. Moscow instantly announces it is using the full authority conferred by the UNSC to enforce the Minsk 2 ceasefire.<\/p>\n

In what would be a matter of 8 hours or a maximum 48 hours, Russian forces smash the whole blitzkrieg apparatus to smithereens and send the Ukrainians back to their sandbox, which is approximately 75km north of the established contact zone.<\/p>\n

In the Black Sea, incidentally, there\u2019s no contact zone. This means Russia may send out all its advanced subs plus the surface fleet anywhere around the \u201cRussian lake\u201d: They are already deployed anyway.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n

Russian President Vladimir Putin looks on as Novator Design Bureau director-general Farid Abdrakhmanov and Deputy Defense Minister Alexei Krivoruchko shake hands during a signing ceremony for government contracts in Alabino, Moscow region, Russia. on June 27, 2019. Photo: AFP \/ Alexei Druzhinin \/ Sputnik<\/em><\/h5>\n

Once again Martyanov lays down the law when he predicts, referring to a group of Russian missiles developed by the Novator Design Bureau: \u201cCrushing Ukies\u2019 command and control system is a matter of few hours, be that near border or in the operational and strategic Uki depth. Basically speaking, the whole of the Ukrainian \u2018navy\u2019 is worth less than the salvo of 3M54 or 3M14 which will be required to sink it. I think couple of Tarantuls will be enough to finish it off in or near Odessa and then give Kiev, especially its government district, a taste of modern stand-off weapons.\u201d<\/p>\n

The absolutely key issue, which cannot be emphasized enough, is that Russia will\u00a0not\u00a0<\/em>(italics mine) \u201cinvade\u201d Ukraine. It doesn\u2019t need to, and it doesn\u2019t want to. What Moscow will do for sure is to support the Novorossiya people\u2019s republics with equipment, intel, electronic warfare, control of airspace and special forces. Even a no-fly zone will not be necessary; the \u201cmessage\u201d will be clear that were a NATO fighter jet to show up near the frontline, it would be summarily shot down.<\/p>\n

And that brings us to the open \u201csecret\u201d whispered only in informal dinners in Brussels, and chancelleries across Eurasia: NATO puppets do not have the balls to get into an open conflict with Russia.<\/p>\n

One thing is to have yapping dogs like Poland, Romania, the Baltic gang and Ukraine amplified by corporate media on their \u201cRussian aggression\u201d script. Factually, NATO had its collective behind unceremoniously kicked in Afghanistan. It shivered when it had to fight the Serbs in the late 1990s. And in the 2010s, it did not dare fight the Damascus and Axis of Resistance forces.<\/p>\n

When all fails, myth prevails. Enter the US Army occupying parts of Europe to \u201cdefend\u201d it against \u2013 who else? \u2013 those pesky Russians.<\/strong><\/p>\n

That\u2019s the rationale behind the annual US Army\u00a0DEFENDER-Europe 21<\/a>, now on till the end of June, mobilizing 28,000 soldiers from the US and 25 NATO allies and \u201cpartners.\u201d<\/p>\n

This month, men and heavy equipment pre-positioned in three US Army depots in Italy, Germany and the Netherlands will be transferred to multiple \u201ctraining areas\u201d in 12 countries. Oh, the joys of travel, no lockdown in an open air exercise since everyone has been fully vaccinated against Covid-19.<\/p>\n

Pipelineistan uber alles<\/strong><\/u><\/h3>\n

Nord Stream 2 is not a big deal for Moscow; it\u2019s a Pipelineistan inconvenience at best<\/strong>. After all the Russian economy did not make a single ruble out of the not yet existent pipeline during the 2010s \u2013 and still it did fine. If NS2 is canceled, there are plans on the table to redirect the bulk of Russian gas shipments towards Eurasia, especially China.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n

Connecting German infrastructure for Nord Stream 2 is in place. In this handout photo released February 4, 2020, by the press service of Eugal, a view shows the Eugal pipeline, in Germany. The Eugal pipeline, which will receive gas from Nord Stream 2 in the future, has reached full pumping capacity, and the second line of the pipeline has been introduced. Photo: AFP \/ Press-service of Eugal \/ Sputnik<\/em><\/h5>\n

In parallel, Berlin knows very well that canceling NS2 will be an extremely serious breach of contract \u2013 involving hundreds of billions of euros; it was Germany that requested the pipeline to be built in the first place.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Germany\u2019s\u00a0energiewende<\/em>\u00a0(\u201cenergy transition\u201d policy) has been a disaster. German industrialists know very well that natural gas is the only alternative to nuclear energy. They are not exactly fond of Berlin becoming a mere hostage, condemned to buy ridiculously expensive shale gas from the hegemon \u2013 even assuming the egemon will be able to deliver, as its fracking industry is in shambles. Merkel explaining to German public opinion why they must revert to using coal or buy shale from the US will be a sight to see.<\/p>\n

As it stands, NATO provocations against NS2 proceed unabated \u2013 via warships and helicopters. NS2 needed a permit to work in Danish waters, and it was granted only a month ago. Even as Russian ships are not as fast in laying pipes as the previous ships from Swiss-based\u00a0Allseas<\/a>, which backed down, intimidated by US sanctions, the Russian Fortuna is making steady progress, as noted by analyst Petri Krohn: one kilometer a day on its best days, at least 800 meters a day. With 35 km left, that should not take more than 50 days.<\/p>\n

Conversations with German analysts reveal a fascinating shadowplay on the energy front between Berlin and Moscow \u2013 not to mention Beijing. Compare it with Washington: EU diplomats complain there\u2019s absolutely no one to negotiate with regarding NS2. And even assuming there would be some sort of deal, Berlin is inclined to admit Putin\u2019s judgment is correct: the Americans are \u201cnot agreement-capable.\u201d One just needs to look at the record.<\/p>\n

Behind the fog of war, though, a clear scenario emerges: the deep state\/NATO combo using Kiev to start a war as a Hail Mary pass to ultimately bury NS2, and thus German-Russian relations.<\/strong><\/p>\n

At the same time, the situation is evolving towards a possible new alignment in the heart of the \u201cWest\u201d: US\/UK pitted against Germany\/France. Some Anglosphere exceptionals are certainly more Russophobic than others.<\/p>\n

The toxic encounter between Russophobia and Pipelineistan will not be over even if NS2 is completed. There will be more sanctions. There will be an attempt to exclude Russia from SWIFT. The proxy war in Syria will intensify. The hegemon will go no holds barred to keep creating all sorts of geopolitical harassment against Russia.<\/p>\n

What a nice wag-the-dog op to distract domestic public opinion from massive money printing masking a looming economic collapse. As the empire crumbles, the narrative is set in stone: it\u2019s all the fault of \u201cRussian aggression.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

___
\nhttps:\/\/asiatimes.com\/2021\/04\/ukraine-redux-war-russophobia-and-pipelineistan\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Ukraine Redux – War, Russophobia, & Pipelineistan<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-59733","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59733","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=59733"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/59733\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=59733"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=59733"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=59733"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}