{"id":10370,"date":"2020-03-31T18:28:52","date_gmt":"2020-03-31T22:28:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=10370"},"modified":"2020-03-31T18:28:52","modified_gmt":"2020-03-31T22:28:52","slug":"a-swiss-physician-provides-high-integrity-covid-19-data-for-risk-assessments","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=10370","title":{"rendered":"A Swiss Physician Provides High-Integrity COVID-19 Data for Risk Assessments"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19<\/h1>\n

Swiss Propaganda Research<\/p>\n

Published<\/strong>: March 14, 2020;\u00a0Updated<\/strong>:\u00a0March 31, 2020<\/a>
\nLanguages<\/strong>:\u00a0DE<\/a>,\u00a0EN<\/a>,\u00a0FR<\/a>,\u00a0ES<\/a>,\u00a0HU<\/a>,\u00a0IT<\/a>,\u00a0NL<\/a>,\u00a0NO<\/a>,\u00a0PL<\/a>,\u00a0RU<\/a><\/p>\n

A Swiss medical doctor provided the following information on the current situation in order to enable our readers to make a realistic risk assessment. (Daily updates below)
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

According to the\u00a0latest data<\/a>\u00a0of the Italian National Health Institute ISS, the average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.<\/p>\n

80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases. The chronic diseases include in particular cardiovascular problems, diabetes, respiratory problems and cancer.<\/p>\n

Less than 1% of the deceased were healthy persons, i.e. persons without pre-existing chronic diseases. Only about 30% of the deceased are women.<\/p>\n

The Italian Institute of Health moreover\u00a0distinguishes<\/a>\u00a0between those who died\u00a0from<\/em>\u00a0the coronavirus and those who died\u00a0with<\/em>\u00a0the coronavirus. In many cases it is not yet clear whether the persons died from the virus or from their pre-existing chronic diseases or from a combination of both.<\/p>\n

The two Italians deceased under 40 years of age (both 39 years old) were a cancer patient and a diabetes patient with additional complications. In these cases, too, the exact cause of death was not yet clear (i.e. if from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases).<\/p>\n

The partial overloading of the hospitals is due to the general rush of patients and the increased number of patients requiring special or intensive care. In particular, the aim is to stabilize respiratory function and, in severe cases, to provide anti-viral therapies.<\/p>\n

(Update<\/strong>: The Italian National Institute of Health published a\u00a0statistical report<\/a>\u00a0on test-positive patients and deceased, confirming the above data.)<\/p>\n

The doctor also points out the following aspects:<\/strong><\/p>\n

Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the\u00a0worst air quality<\/a>\u00a0in Europe, which had already led to an\u00a0increased number<\/a>\u00a0of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past and is likely an additional risk factor in the current epidemic.<\/p>\n

South Korea, for instance, has experienced a much milder course than Italy and has already passed the peak of the epidemic. In South Korea, only about 70 deaths with a positive test result have been reported so far. As in Italy, those affected were mostly high-risk patients.<\/p>\n

The few dozen test-positive Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years, whose exact cause of death, i.e. from the virus or from their pre-existing diseases, is not yet known.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, studies have shown that the internationally used virus test kits may give a false positive result in some cases. In these cases, the persons may\u00a0not<\/em>\u00a0have contracted the new coronavirus, but presumably one of the many existing human coronaviruses that are part of the annual (and currently ongoing) common cold and flu epidemics. (1)<\/p>\n

Thus the most important indicator for judging the danger of the disease is\u00a0not<\/em>\u00a0the frequently reported number of positively-tested persons and deaths, but the number of persons actually and unexpectedly developing or dying\u00a0from pneumonia (<\/em>so-called excess mortality).<\/p>\n

According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of the Covid-19 disease can be expected. Senior citizens and persons with existing chronic diseases should be protected. The medical capacities should be optimally prepared.<\/p>\n

Medical literature<\/strong><\/h5>\n

(1) Patrick et al.,\u00a0An Outbreak of Human Coronavirus OC43 Infection and Serological Cross-reactivity with SARS Coronavirus<\/a>, CJIDMM, 2006.<\/p>\n

(2) Grasselli et al.,\u00a0Critical Care Utilization for the COVID-19 Outbreak in Lombardy<\/a>, JAMA, March 2020.<\/p>\n

(3) WHO,\u00a0Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on Coronavirus Disease 2019<\/a>, February 2020.<\/p>\n

Reference values<\/strong><\/h5>\n

Important reference values include the number of annual flu deaths, which is up to 8,000 in Italy and up to 60,000 in the US; normal overall mortality, which in Italy is up to 2,000 deaths\u00a0per day<\/em>; and the average number of pneumonia cases per year, which in Italy is over 120,000.<\/p>\n

Current all-cause mortality in Europe and in Italy is still normal or even below-average. Any excess mortality due to Covid-19 should become visible in the\u00a0European monitoring charts<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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Winter smog (NO2) in Northern Italy in February 2020 (ESA)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Updates<\/h4>\n

Regular updates on the situation (all sources referenced).<\/p>\n

March 17, 2020 (I)
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