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By David Boyajian\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n
January 19, 2022<\/p>\n
President Putin has been making some <\/span>astonishing<\/span><\/a> demands, including:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Yet, incredibly, Putin has himself been <\/span>enabling<\/span><\/i> a NATO member\u2019s aggression bordering Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n In 2020, the Kremlin embraced<\/span> Turkey\u2019s sending <\/span>American<\/span><\/a>-designed\/equipped F-16s and Bayraktar drones containing <\/span>NATO components<\/span><\/a> into Azerbaijan.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Turkey and Azerbaijan (\u201cone nation, two states\u201d) subsequently defeated the Armenian populated Artsakh Republic\/Nagorno-Karabagh and Russia\u2019s <\/span>longtime ally, Armenia<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0 Israel backed Azerbaijan militarily.<\/span><\/p>\n The brutal 44-day war ended with a so-called <\/span>peace agreement<\/span><\/a> on November 9, 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n Russia facilitated Turkey\u2019s (and, <\/span>de facto<\/span><\/i>, NATO\u2019s) participation in Putin\u2019s self-defeating grudge war against Armenians:<\/span><\/p>\n In contrast:<\/span><\/p>\n Russia\u2019s Angry President<\/b><\/p>\n Elected on an anti-corruption platform in 2018\u2019s democratic \u201cVelvet Revolution,\u201d Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was reelected in 2021.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Russia dislikes democratic leaders.\u00a0 They\u2019re harder to arm-twist and bribe.\u00a0 True, Pashinyan has been somewhat friendlier to Western nations than Armenia\u2019s earlier leaders.<\/span><\/p>\n Yet, post-independence (1991), Yerevan has maintained excellent political and economic relations with the EU, U.S., and NATO.\u00a0 In 2005, America built one of its largest embassies in the world under President Robert Kocharyan, a Putin favorite.<\/span><\/p>\n Regardless, Putin hated Pashinyan, barely spoke to him, and never gave him a chance.<\/span><\/p>\n European\u2013Armenian relations go back thousands of years.\u00a0 A strong U.S.\u2013Armenian friendship dates to the 19th century.\u00a0 This is natural for an ancient Christian nation speaking an Indo-European tongue.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Armenia has, nevertheless, allied itself with Russia for historical reasons and as security against <\/span>genocidal<\/span><\/a> Turkey<\/span><\/a> and Azerbaijan.\u00a0 A more reliable Russian ally doesn\u2019t exist.<\/span><\/p>\n Yerevan and Pashinyan certainly made mistakes before and during the war.\u00a0 But Putin\u2019s angry betrayal of Armenians has been undeserved and irrational.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Pashinyan never oriented Yerevan away from Moscow.\u00a0 He couldn\u2019t.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Moscow\u2019s Grip<\/b><\/p>\n Russia supplies nearly all its ally\u2019s gas, oil, and weapons, controls much of its energy infrastructure, including the Metsamor nuclear power plant, and has two military bases in Armenia.<\/span><\/p>\n The Kremlin\u2019s imperialist attitude towards small allies: \u2018You wouldn\u2019t exist if not for Russia, so be eternally grateful.\u00a0 Otherwise, we\u2019ll punish you <\/span>even if it severely damages Russia.\u2019<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Indeed, due to Putin\u2019s grudge war against Armenians:<\/span><\/p>\n No wonder the neo-con U.S. State Department\u2019s and NATO\u2019s condemnations of Turkish\/Azerbaijani aggression have been generally low-key.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n True, Russia may now have more control over Armenia and has deployed 2000 troops in Artsakh.\u00a0 But Russia could have gotten these without the war.\u00a0 Instead, the Kremlin chose anger and war over sound judgment.<\/span><\/p>\n Ironically, though livid at Pashinyan\u2019s mild Western outreach, Moscow seems fine with Turkey\u2019s Western military, economic, and political memberships: NATO, EU Customs Union, and scores more.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Similarly for Azerbaijan: The UK has <\/span>invested<\/span><\/a> $100 billion, the EU is a <\/span>major<\/span><\/a> trade <\/span>partner<\/span><\/a>, and American investment is <\/span>massive<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Western<\/span><\/i> money helped build Azerbaijani energy pipelines which avoided Russia, going instead through Moscow\u2019s adversary, Georgia.\u00a0 Even Donald Trump <\/span>attempted<\/span><\/a> to build a $200 million hotel in Baku.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n But no, Moscow prefers to bully and betray its best ally.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Is Armenia really an important ally?<\/span><\/p>\n The Turkish\/NATO Threat to Russia<\/b><\/p>\n Were Armenia to somehow exit Moscow\u2019s camp, Turkey and NATO would rapidly displace Russia from the Caucasus because:<\/span><\/p>\n The Caspian would <\/span>become<\/span><\/a> a NATO\/Turkic lake.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Moreover, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Turkey\u2019s pan-Turkic aspirations lie just across the Caspian.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Russia would face a future grimmer than what NATO in Europe poses.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Is Russia Reliable?<\/b><\/p>\n Besides Moscow\u2019s recent treachery, Armenians remember Moscow\u2019s gifting <\/span>Artsakh<\/span><\/a>, <\/span>Nakhichevan<\/span><\/a>, and Western Armenian territory to Azerbaijan and Turkey in the 1920s,\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Russia\u2019s growing weakness also makes Armenians question its reliability.<\/span><\/p>\n Russia has lost most of eastern Europe to NATO.\u00a0 Despite territorial gains in Ukraine and Georgia, Moscow may eventually lose them (and Belarus) <\/span>unless it invades some or all of them, which is possible but risky.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Central Asia looks shaky due to Turkish, Western, and Chinese inroads.<\/span><\/p>\n Without allies in the Black Sea, Russia worries about NATO exercises such as <\/span>Sea Breeze 2021<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n Turkey poses other problems for Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n Over Putin\u2019s <\/span>protests<\/span><\/a>, Turkey sells Bayraktars and other <\/span>weapons<\/span><\/a> to Ukraine.\u00a0 Ankara demands that Crimea be returned to Kyiv.\u00a0 President Erdogan has threatened Russia with a Muslim uprising and declared that Turkey is ascendant in Central Asia.\u00a0 Russia still can\u2019t oust Turkey from Syria.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Influenced by Russia\u2019s Eurasianist theorist Aleksandr Dugin, Putin thinks he\u2019s luring Turkey away from NATO.\u00a0 Erdogan is unlikely to fall for that trap.<\/span><\/p>\n Armenia\u2019s Dilemma\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n Suppose Yerevan could escape the Russian bear\u2019s grip.\u00a0 Joining NATO would not guarantee its security.\u00a0 Turkey, which has <\/span>murderous<\/span><\/a> plans for Armenia, would vastly outweigh it.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n Turkey threatens Greece, Cyprus, and others, invades whatever countries it pleases, and supports ISIS and other international terrorists while the U.S., NATO, and Europe look the other way.<\/span><\/p>\n Kowtowing to Turkey for 100+ years has destroyed the West\u2019s credibility.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n The Caucasus\u2019s future is hard to predict, but some major things \u2013 unlikely as they seem now \u2013 could reshape the region in the medium and long terms.<\/span><\/p>\n As for Armenia, it must maneuver between the region\u2019s competing powers as it has for 3000 years.<\/span><\/p>\n\n
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