{"id":122424,"date":"2022-07-01T07:33:57","date_gmt":"2022-07-01T11:33:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=122424"},"modified":"2022-07-01T07:33:57","modified_gmt":"2022-07-01T11:33:57","slug":"western-powers-have-already-lost-the-war-against-russia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=122424","title":{"rendered":"<h1>Western Powers Have Already Lost the War Against Russia<\/h1>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more--> Tom Luongo<br \/>\nGold Goats \u2018n Guns<\/p>\n<p>So, the G-7 leaders are in agreement, more war with Russia. Without actually saying exactly that, that was the main takeaway from he meeting of the most feckless leaders in the world.<\/p>\n<p>They also pledged $600 billion they don\u2019t have to fund global infrastructure projects to \u2018combat China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative.\u2019 One wonders where all this money and, in the case of Europe, energy is going to come from to fund all of this.<\/p>\n<p>But the question I\u2019ve had from the beginning of this obvious war of attrition the West wants to impose on Russia is the following: Do we have the stamina, in terms of real production capacity, to cash these checks our leaders are writing?<\/p>\n<p>A major report from the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), one of the oldest military think tanks in the UK emphatically said not in anyone\u2019s wildest dreams. Alex Mercouris of The Duran did an amazing job of breaking down what RUSI thought about NATO\u2019s ability to wage war vs. Russia\u2019s current military tempo, days before this idea caught fire.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"jetpack-video-wrapper\"><span class=\"embed-youtube\"><iframe class=\"youtube-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ZqXC22fRCBE?version=3&amp;rel=1&amp;showsearch=0&amp;showinfo=1&amp;iv_load_policy=1&amp;fs=1&amp;hl=en-US&amp;autohide=2&amp;wmode=transparent\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-ratio=\"0.5633116883116883\" data-width=\"616\" data-height=\"347\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>In short, the gulf between NATO\u2019s annual munition production and weekly consumption by the UAF is staggeringly vast.<\/p>\n<p>I told you\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tomluongo.me\/2022\/03\/02\/opening-salvos-tossed-putin-next-moves-ukraine\/\">at the outset of this war<\/a>\u00a0that Russia was absolutely engaged in a war of attrition against the West, hoping NATO would take the bait of a ground war in Ukraine. \u00a0I didn\u2019t have numbers to back this up, only the inference because of what I understood about Putin and his previous maneuvers against the West.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote\"><p>What\u2019s obvious to me is the neocons and neoliberals controlling the West think they can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for Putin, but what if Putin thinks he can turn Ukraine into a quagmire for them?<\/p>\n<p>Russia is not capable of conquering Europe. But he doesn\u2019t need to to defeat them. He just needs to create a version of this map:<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-13874 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=616%2C410&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=1024%2C682&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=150%2C100&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=768%2C511&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=1536%2C1023&amp;ssl=1 1536w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=816%2C543&amp;ssl=1 816w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?resize=120%2C80&amp;ssl=1 120w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?w=2000&amp;ssl=1 2000w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?w=1232&amp;ssl=1 1232w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?w=1848&amp;ssl=1 1848w\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"410\" data-attachment-id=\"13874\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/tomluongo.me\/2022\/03\/02\/opening-salvos-tossed-putin-next-moves-ukraine\/future-ukraine-map\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?fit=2000%2C1332&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"2000,1332\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"Future-Ukraine-Map\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?fit=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/03\/Future-Ukraine-Map.png?fit=616%2C410&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>I knew that Putin wouldn\u2019t commit Russia to this conflict if it couldn\u2019t sustain fighting it. \u00a0I also knew that the West would LIE OUTRAGEOUSLY about the level of corruption within the Russian society to play on the biases of marginally-informed American armchair generals.<\/p>\n<p>Is the Russian system perfect? \u00a0No. \u00a0Is there corruption? Yes. But it\u2019s complete nonsense to think it wouldn\u2019t be uncovered and stripped out of all branches of the Russian military\/industrial complex during the initial military gambit. The shifts made by Russia strategically and in terms of personnel have set it up for the long haul, fighting a type of war they are very good at and which the US and NATO left the UAF mostly defenseless against.<\/p>\n<p>Now, with sanctions further hollowing out the US\u2019s and Europe\u2019s economies and the \u201cleadership\u201d of the buffoons that just met in Germany, Russia is in the driver\u2019s seat to grind out a victory in Ukraine and leave the West depleted of weapons if the current situation goes on without a course correction.<\/p>\n<p>The point made by RUSI is that it may not be possible to course correct in time (or ever) in the time frame needed to affect the outcome in Ukraine, absent an unthinkable escalation.<\/p>\n<p>The exhaustion we thought we would put to Russia, is the ultimate form of \u2018sanctions boomerang\u2019 on the West. To listen to RUSI tell the tale, we\u2019re the ones without the capacity to fight if the conflict widens.<\/p>\n<p>And yet, to listen to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken or National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, you would think Russia is still on the verge of collapse.<\/p>\n<p>Now the G-7 think they have the power to set a global price cap on crude oil. I\u2019ve told you time and again that\u00a0<em>Davos<\/em>\u00a0really does believe they have some kind of\u00a0<em>monopsony<\/em>\u00a0power over Russia\u2019s exports. They still believe that their thirst for energy, food, industrial metals, fertilizer, etc. gives them power over Putin.<\/p>\n<p>I remind you of this pivotal scene in Chris Nolan\u2019s\u00a0<em>The Dark Knight Rises:<\/em><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<div class=\"jetpack-video-wrapper\"><span class=\"embed-youtube\"><iframe class=\"youtube-player\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/ILmBcDltJQI?version=3&amp;rel=1&amp;showsearch=0&amp;showinfo=1&amp;iv_load_policy=1&amp;fs=1&amp;hl=en-US&amp;autohide=2&amp;start=20&amp;wmode=transparent\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\" data-ratio=\"0.5633116883116883\" data-width=\"616\" data-height=\"347\" data-mce-fragment=\"1\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n<p>And Putin is the moderate within Russian power circles. There are a hundred Banes waiting in the wings happy to snap the necks of the John Daggetts he no longer needs to sell oil and gas to.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019ve watched Putin for years. \u00a0I\u2019ve seen him put pressure on his central bank and the bankers to reform the financial sector. \u00a0I\u2019ve seen him publicly dress down and reform major industrial oligarchs in metals production. \u00a0Six plus years of military operations in Syria have given him a lot of data on how to execute a long-term strategy and find the break points of his logistics and operations.<\/p>\n<p>And I\u2019m sure that this war in Ukraine is as much another data gathering exercise for the capabilities of the West as much as it is a stress test on his own internal production systems.<\/p>\n<p>Russia is now 4 months into this review. \u00a0Lots of people have been fired, jailed, etc. \u00a0The non-hackers are being weeded out. \u00a0Operations are leaning out.<\/p>\n<p>Now let\u2019s look at the West.<\/p>\n<p>The US under Biden is now amping up military spending, presumably to increase ammunition production levels. \u00a0But it may not be. \u00a0As Alex rightly points out, echoing points that Dexter White has discussed in the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.patreon.com\/posts\/67942133\">Gold Goats \u2018n Guns newsletter<\/a>,\u00a0<em>keiretsu or just-in-time manufacturing<\/em>\u00a0is how we operate here in the West. \u00a0That system is under massive stress thanks to the supply chain breakdown created by\u00a0<em>Davos\u00a0<\/em>over COVID-19.<\/p>\n<p>While sanctions may have limited Russia\u2019s ability to procure or maintain a large arsenal of its highest technology tanks and\/or airplanes,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.spreaker.com\/episode\/49040906\">again as Dexter has pointed out<\/a>, it may not be relevant here because this isn\u2019t a war of bleeding edge technology.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s a WWI style artillery war, which we are not prepared to fight. \u00a0Scott Ritter pointed out to me when we met at the recent Ron Paul Institute conference that NATO no longer trains in\u00a0<em>maneuver warfare<\/em>. \u00a0While Russia\u2019s combined forces training is limited, as evidenced in its attack on Kiev in February, the US\u2019s major advantage has been severely curtailed by lack of training and readiness over the past couple of decades.<\/p>\n<p>So, what we have, overall, is a military picture with weak supply chains, limited ability to ramp production, and a military that hasn\u2019t trained for sustained warfare on a mass scale.<\/p>\n<p>This means that Biden\u2019s expansion of the DoD\u2019s budget to $813 billion this year may not even be what we think it means. \u00a0Instead of being a buildup to fight a wider war, this may seriously be just the last dip at the trough before the whole system comes crashing down.<\/p>\n<p>Remember, that\u00a0<em>Davos\u00a0<\/em>wants the US destroyed. \u00a0It has assiduously hollowed out vital US manufacturing capability while simultaneously putting it in a fragile fiscal position with a divided and angry population.<\/p>\n<p>The stage is set for internal conflict of a type and kind that we haven\u2019t seen in over 150 years. \u00a0And we\u2019re supposed to fight a war with Russia, a nuclear and conventional military powerhouse?<\/p>\n<p>This is leaving aside the reality that if NATO declares open war on Russia that Blinkered Blinken and the anti-Diplomats have pushed China into being paranoid about our intentions over Taiwan.<\/p>\n<p>The real stress test is happening now. \u00a0Ukraine is getting crushed under the weight of Russia\u2019s ability to sustain an inhuman level of artillery bombardment. \u00a0The RUSI article only touches on the potential for Russia to continue its production of the needed munitions, but one gets the idea that these things are cheap and fully domestically sourced.<\/p>\n<p>This has forced into the open the massive shortfall of industrial capacity in the West as well as fracturing the political leadership as to what they should ultimately do here.<\/p>\n<p>Half of them want to continue the war in perpetuity. The other half want a ceasefire. \u00a0None of them would admit this at the G-7 meeting out of a need to not look weak or admit that the Russians have exposed them.<\/p>\n<p>It takes a staggering amount of energy to fight a sustained war. \u00a0The West is at the mercy of Russia to get that energy.<\/p>\n<p>The next phase of this war is now the complete divorce of Europe from the Russian energy complex at prices that can\u2019t keep Europe from sinking into depression if not outright depravity.<\/p>\n<p>To achieve this, these out-of-touch narcissists think they can set a limit on what they will pay for a barrel of oil? I thought I\u2019d heard it all in this life, but this is almost as delusional as the average Libs of TikTok video post Roe v. Wade\u2019s demise.<\/p>\n<p>The financial war of attrition against the West I\u2019ve discussed at length for months is the reality of the day. \u00a0Ultimately without energy or the money to procure or produce it, there is no real conventional war. Industrial warfare having returned, as is the premise of the RUSI article, has already determined the outcome in Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p>This is just part of the reason why\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/tomluongo.me\/2022\/05\/24\/davos-2022-octogenarian-oligarch-cage-match\/\">Henry Kissinger urged at this year\u2019s Davos meeting\u00a0<\/a>to open up talks and begin the negotiations. It seems at this point his admonishments have fallen on deaf ears. Given the average age of the idiots making these decisions, this is, of course, not surprising.<\/p>\n<p><em>Davos\u00a0<\/em>has set the US up for complete humiliation in Ukraine, sacrificed thousands of Ukrainians, bankrupted millions of Europeans and corrupted hundred of millions sustaining a vast bureaucracy incapable of responding to the growing needs of a failing system.<\/p>\n<p>The sad part is this: \u00a0They think they are #winning, because so much of this is going according to plan. They are missing the big parts about destroying the US too quickly in the process, if you want it to fight your war to cover your bankruptcy.<\/p>\n<p>Russia and China will cut Europe off from global trade if Europe defaults on its debt, which\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/markets\/status\/1541712265140920321\">ECB President Christine Lagarde just told the world she is ready to do.<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0The Fed\u2019s hawkishness is already destroying the Eurodollar markets, the source of\u00a0<em>Davos\u2019<\/em>\u00a0power.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large is-style-default\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-14691 jetpack-lazy-image jetpack-lazy-image--handled\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?resize=616%2C287&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 616px) 100vw, 616px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?resize=1024%2C477&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?resize=300%2C140&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?resize=150%2C70&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?resize=768%2C358&amp;ssl=1 768w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?resize=816%2C380&amp;ssl=1 816w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?resize=172%2C80&amp;ssl=1 172w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?w=1517&amp;ssl=1 1517w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?w=1232&amp;ssl=1 1232w\" alt=\"\" width=\"616\" height=\"287\" data-attachment-id=\"14691\" data-permalink=\"https:\/\/tomluongo.me\/2022\/06\/29\/the-g-7-squawks-but-theyve-already-lost-the-war-against-russia\/image-8-15\/\" data-orig-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?fit=1517%2C707&amp;ssl=1\" data-orig-size=\"1517,707\" data-comments-opened=\"1\" data-image-meta=\"{&quot;aperture&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;credit&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;camera&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;caption&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;created_timestamp&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;copyright&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;focal_length&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;iso&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;shutter_speed&quot;:&quot;0&quot;,&quot;title&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;orientation&quot;:&quot;0&quot;}\" data-image-title=\"image-8\" data-image-description=\"\" data-image-caption=\"\" data-medium-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?fit=300%2C140&amp;ssl=1\" data-large-file=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/tomluongo.me\/wp-content\/uploads\/2022\/06\/image-8.png?fit=616%2C287&amp;ssl=1\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" data-lazy-loaded=\"1\" \/><\/figure>\n<p>The vestiges of US Federalism still function at a high enough level to thwart all of their plans. c.f. the SCOTUS decisions last week and Ron DeSantis\u2019 track record as Florida Governor.<\/p>\n<p>Speaking of DeSantis, he\u2019s rapidly emerging as the front-runner for the GOP nomination in 2024.<\/p>\n<p>So, in conclusion this is what I see next:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Russia will not stop with their victory in Donbass<\/li>\n<li>They will take Nikolaev, Kharkov and Odessa (Note Russian spelling, screw the BBC!).<\/li>\n<li>Russia will not take the bait over Kaliningrad, but will cut off all gas to Germany.<\/li>\n<li>The German government will fall, but it won\u2019t matter b\/c the Greens, who set policy, control the Bundesrat.<\/li>\n<li>Russia will continue to not give\u00a0<em>Davos<\/em>\u00a0the excuse to start WWIII, even with Finland and Sweden entering the alliance.<\/li>\n<li>They will keep upping the stakes while further exposing the emptiness of their threats.<\/li>\n<li>The Biden Admin. will keep trying to start a war over Taiwan<\/li>\n<li>Eventually China will oblige them, even though they don\u2019t want to.<\/li>\n<li>Bulgaria\u2019s collapse is just the start of the end of the EU in Eastern Europe.<\/li>\n<li>NATO will either collapse or nukes will fly\u2026. I\u2019m still betting on the former.<\/li>\n<li>Erdogan caving over NATO expansion means Putin will oppose him in Syria.<\/li>\n<li>The Fed will continue raising rates while the ECB hangs on for dear life.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>In desperation I expect a false flag provocation to force the Russians into a move or simply justify the\u00a0<em>Davos\u00a0<\/em>pulling us into their next war, i.e. another virus or chemical weapons attack this time blamed on Putin.<\/p>\n<p>The goal of this project is an independent Europe, a broken US and vassalage for Asia.<\/p>\n<p>They will achieve, at best, one of those three things. \u00a0An independent, but broken Europe under the vassalage of Russia and China, the the US retreats and licks its wounds.\u00a0That\u2019s the future I see now, if the nukes don\u2019t fly.<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/tomluongo.me\/2022\/06\/29\/the-g-7-squawks-but-theyve-already-lost-the-war-against-russia\">https:\/\/tomluongo.me\/2022\/06\/29\/the-g-7-squawks-but-theyve-already-lost-the-war-against-russia<\/a>\/<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-122424","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122424","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=122424"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/122424\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=122424"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=122424"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=122424"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}