{"id":136719,"date":"2022-09-29T06:18:07","date_gmt":"2022-09-29T10:18:07","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=136719"},"modified":"2022-09-29T06:22:55","modified_gmt":"2022-09-29T10:22:55","slug":"ukraine-war-is-a-regional-armed-conflict-now-inevitable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=136719","title":{"rendered":"

UKRAINE WAR: Is a regional armed conflict now inevitable?<\/i><\/b><\/h2>"},"content":{"rendered":"

Unpacking the Ukraine \u2018Game Change\u2019; Is a Major Conflict Inevitable?<\/h1>\n


\nAlastair Crooke<\/p>\n

Any political solution \u2013 however theoretical, at this point \u2013 would involve Moscow sitting with the collective West. Kiev had become a bystander.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

Russia is preparing for an escalation in this war. She is augmenting her forces to the minimum level that could deal with a major NATO offensive. This decision was not precipitated by a significant attrition in the existing force. The facts are clear: The militias of Donetsk and Luhansk represent\u00a0the majority<\/em>\u00a0of the Russian allied forces fighting in the Donbas. The militias have been reinforced by contract soldiers from the Wagner Group and Chechen fighters however, rather than by regular Russian forces.<\/p>\n

But this is about to change. The number of Russian regulars fighting in Ukraine will rise dramatically. However, the referenda in the Ukrainian oblasts come first; and those will be followed by the Government of Russia and the Duma accepting the results and approving the annexation of these territories. After that is concluded and the territories assimilated into Russia, any attack on the new Russian territories would be treated as an act of war against Russia. As former Indian diplomat, MK Bhadrakumar,\u00a0notes<\/a>, \u201cThe accession of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye creates a new political reality and Russia\u2019s partial mobilisation on parallel track is intended to provide the military underpinning for it\u201d.<\/p>\n

Clearly, we \u2013 the world \u2013 are at a pivotal moment. \u2018Collective Russia\u2019 has concluded that the former low-intensity war is no longer viable:<\/p>\n

Unimaginable flows of western $ billions; too many NATO fingers in the Ukraine pie; too wide\u00a0a \u2018Ho Chi Minh Trail\u2019<\/a>\u00a0of ever more long-range and advanced weaponry; and too many \u2018delusions\u2019<\/a>\u00a0that Kiev can still somehow win \u2013 effectively have undercut any \u2018off-ramp solution\u2019 and portend inexorable escalation.<\/p>\n

Well, \u2018Collective Russia\u2019 has decided to \u2018get ahead of the curve\u2019, and to bring the affairs of Ukraine to the crunch. It is a risk; that is why we have reached an inflection point. The $64 thousand dollar question is, what will be the studied reaction of western political leaders to Putin\u2019s speech? The next weeks will be crucial.<\/p>\n

The point here is that western leaders \u2018claim\u2019 that Putin is just bluffing \u2013 as he is losing. Western hype is \u2018shooting the moon\u2019: \u201cPutin is panicked; Russian markets are falling; young men are fleeing conscription\u201d. Yes, well the\u00a0Moex<\/em>\u00a0Russia index closed higher on Thursday; the rouble has remained steady; and the big queues are at the recruitment offices, rather than airline offices.<\/p>\n

Just to be clear: The limited mobilization Putin announced only applies to those who serve in Russia\u2019s reserves and who have seen prior military service. It is unlikely to hobble the economy.<\/p>\n

The Russian pre-planned, tactical withdrawal from Kharkov \u2013 though militarily sound in logic, given the troop numbers required to defend a 1,000 km border \u2013 has generated throughout the West a fantasy of panic in Moscow and of Russian forces fleeing Kharkov before an advancing Ukrainian offensive.<\/p>\n

The danger to such fantasies is that leaders begin to believe their own propaganda. How could western Intelligence reporting become\u00a0so divorced from<\/a>\u00a0reality<\/a>? One reason undoubtedly is the\u00a0explicit<\/em>\u00a0decision to craft\u00a0\u2018cherry-picked\u2019 intelligence<\/a>\u00a0to serve as deliberately \u2018leaked\u2019 anti-Russian propaganda. And where would be the best quarry for such propaganda material? Kiev. It seems that largely, intelligence services come to accept and circulate what Kiev says, without cross-checking for accuracy.<\/p>\n

Yes, it is hard to believe (but not without precedent). Politicians naturally love what seems to bolster their narratives. Contrarian assessments are met with scowls.<\/p>\n

Therefore, western leaders are doubling down on promises to continue sending money and advanced weaponry to Ukraine that will be used to attack \u2013 among others \u2013 Russian civilians. A new co-ordinated narrative from the West is that whereas on the Russian side, one man can end the war; on the other, for Ukraine to stop the war would mean \u2018no Ukraine\u2019.<\/p>\n

Neocons, such as Robert Kagan, naturally have put their own spin on the official psyops, by pushing the line that Putin is bluffing. Kagan\u00a0wrote<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0Foreign Affairs<\/em>:<\/p>\n

\u201cRussia may possess a fearful nuclear arsenal, but the risk of Moscow using it is not higher now than it would have been in 2008 or 2014, if the West had intervened then. And it [the nuclear risk] has always been extraordinarily small: Putin was never going to obtain his objectives by destroying himself and his country, along with much of the rest of the world.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n

In short, don\u2019t worry about going to war with Russia, Putin won\u2019t use \u2018the bomb\u2019. Really?<\/p>\n

Again, to be plain, Putin said in his speech on 21 September: \u201cThey [Western leaders] have even resorted to the nuclear blackmail \u2026 [I refer] to the statements made by some high-ranking representatives of the leading NATO countries on the possibility and admissibility of using weapons of mass destruction \u2013 nuclear weapons \u2013 against Russia\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201cI would like to remind \u2026 in the event of a threat to the territorial integrity of our country, and to defend Russia and our people, we will certainly make use of all weapon systems available to us.\u00a0This is not a bluff<\/em>\u201d.<\/p>\n

These Neocons advocating \u2018hard deterrence\u2019 rotate in and out of power, parked in places like the\u00a0Council on Foreign Relations<\/em>\u00a0or\u00a0Brookings<\/em>\u00a0or the\u00a0AEI<\/em>, before being called back into government. They have been as welcome in the Obama or Biden White House, as the Bush White House. The Cold War, for them, never ended, and the world remains binary \u2013 \u2018us and them, good and evil\u2019.<\/p>\n

Of course, the Pentagon does not buy the Kagan meme. They well know what nuclear war implies. Yet, the EU and U.S. political \u00e9lites have chosen to place all their chips on the roulette wheel landing on \u2018Ukraine\u2019:<\/p>\n

Ukraine\u2019s symbolic expression now serves multiple ends: Principally, as distraction from domestic failures \u2013 \u2018Saving Ukraine\u2019 offers an (albeit false) narrative to explain the energy crisis, the spiking inflation and businesses shutting down. It is icon too, to the framework of the \u2018enemy within\u2019 (the Putin whisperers). And it serves to justify the control regime currently being cooked-up in Brussels. It is, in short, politically highly\u00a0useful.\u00a0<\/em>Even perhaps, existentially essential.<\/p>\n

Russia thus has taken the first step towards a real war footing. The west will be well advised to acknowledge and understand how this situation came about, rather than to pretend to its public that Russia is on the verge of collapse \u2013 which it is not.<\/p>\n

How did \u2018collective Russia\u2019 arrive at this point? How do the pieces fit together?<\/p>\n

The first piece to this jigsaw is Syria: Moscow intervened there with a tiny commitment \u2013 some 25 Sukhoi fighters and no more than 5,000 men. There, as with Ukraine, the operation was one of giving support to frontline forces. In Ukraine, through aiding the Donbas militia to defend themselves \u2013 and in Syria, through offering the Syrian army air-support, intelligence and mediation outreach to those with whom Damascus was not talking.<\/p>\n

The other key piece to understanding Russia\u2019s Syria \u2018posture\u2019 was that Moscow could rely for the cutting-edge ground-fighting on two highly skilled, and motivated fighting auxiliaries, in addition to the mainstream Syrian army: i.e. Hizbullah and the IRGC.<\/p>\n

Taken together, this Russian intervention \u2013 limited to a supporting role only \u2013 nevertheless yielded political results. Turkey mediated; and the Astana Accord resulted. Notwithstanding that Astana has not been a great success \u2013 but its framework lives on.<\/p>\n

The point here is that Moscow\u2019s deployment in Syria ultimately was politically oriented towards a political solution.<\/p>\n

Fast-forward to Ukraine: The militias of Donetsk and Luhansk represent the majority of the Russian-allied forces doing the fighting in the Donbas. The militias are reinforced by contract soldiers from the Wagner Group and Chechens fighters. This explains why Russian losses of 5,800 KIA, during the SMO are \u2018small\u2019. Russian forces were rarely on the frontlines of this war. (In Syria they were not on the frontlines at all.)<\/p>\n

So, the Syria blueprint effectively was lifted aloft, and fitted down over Ukraine. What does this tell us? It suggests that originally Team Putin was angulated towards a negotiated settlement in Ukraine, just as in Syria. And it almost happened. Turkey again mediated, with peace talks occurring in Istanbul in late March, with promising results showing.<\/p>\n

In one respect however, events here did\u00a0not<\/em>\u00a0follow the Syria pattern. Boris Johnson immediately scuttled the settlement initiative, warning Zelensky that he must not \u2018normalise\u2019 with Putin; and if he did reach some accord, it would not be recognised by the West.<\/p>\n

After this episode, the SMO nonetheless continued in its highly restricted format (with no signs of any political solution on the horizon). It persisted, too, despite growing evidence that taking down the defences that NATO had spent eight years erecting in Donbas likely were beyond the militia capabilities. In short, the SMO was demonstrating its limitations: what worked in Syria, was not working in Ukraine.<\/p>\n

More forces plainly were required. Could this be done by tweaking the SMO (which imposed legal constraints on Russian regular forces serving in Ukraine), or was a complete re-set required? What resulted was the limited mobilisation and referenda outcome.<\/p>\n

Plainly, however the decision to assimilate Ukrainian territory would foreclose on a likely political settlement, but this latter possibility was falling away anyway as the West fell for its fantasies of a Ukrainian complete victory, and as NATO escalated. The \u2018war\u2019 was becoming less and less about Ukraine, and more and more NATO\u2019s war on Russia.<\/p>\n

Any political solution \u2013 however theoretical, at this point \u2013 would involve Moscow sitting with the collective West. Kiev had become a bystander.<\/p>\n

Well, this was the point at which other geo-politics thrust itself into the equation: Russia, under sanctions, must pursue a strategy of building-out a protected \u2018strategic depth\u2019 that trades in own currencies (outside the dollar hegemony). MacKinder called this sphere the \u2018World Island\u2019 \u2013 a land-based mass, well distanced from the naval Great Powers.<\/p>\n

Russia needs the support of BRICS and the SCO as partners both in creating this \u2018trading strategic depth\u2019, and for the multi-polar world order project. Some of its leaders though \u2013 particularly China and India \u2013 mindful of the SCO\u2019s 2001 founding charter \u2013 naturally could have difficulty in\u00a0lending public support<\/em>\u00a0to Russia\u2019s Ukraine plans.<\/p>\n

Yes, China and India are sensitive to interventions in other states, and Team Putin has worked hard, continually briefing its allies on Ukraine, so that they could understand the full background to the conflict. The summit at Samarkand was the final \u2018piece\u2019 \u2013 the personal briefing of what was to come in respect to Ukraine that needed to fall into place.<\/p>\n

How will the West react? With a public display of \u2018fury\u2019 for sure; yet despite the hype, some fundamental realities will have to be addressed: Does Ukraine, with its severely abraded forces, have the wherewithal to continue this war after the loss of so many men? Is Europe even able to mobilise towards a larger NATO war against Russia? Do the U.S. and Europe retain a sufficient inventory of munitions, after so much has already been passed into the hands of Kiev?<\/p>\n

The next crucial weeks will provide answers.<\/p>\n

___
\nhttps:\/\/strategic-culture.org\/news\/2022\/09\/26\/unpacking-ukraine-game-change-is-major-conflict-inevitable\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Unpacking the Ukraine \u2018Game Change\u2019; Is a Major Conflict Inevitable?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-136719","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136719","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=136719"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/136719\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=136719"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=136719"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=136719"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}