{"id":194906,"date":"2023-11-09T10:08:24","date_gmt":"2023-11-09T14:08:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=194906"},"modified":"2023-11-09T10:08:24","modified_gmt":"2023-11-09T14:08:24","slug":"putin-punishes-russias-key-ally","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=194906","title":{"rendered":"<h1>Putin Punishes Russia\u2019s Key Ally<\/h1>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more--><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-194907\" src=\"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/16038301215f9881692f25c4.41586199.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"980\" height=\"664\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/16038301215f9881692f25c4.41586199.jpg 980w, https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/16038301215f9881692f25c4.41586199-300x203.jpg 300w, https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/16038301215f9881692f25c4.41586199-768x520.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 980px) 100vw, 980px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>By David Boyajian<\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Oddly, few Western writers on the South Caucasus have ever grasped Christian Armenia\u2019s significance as Russia\u2019s only ally and military outpost among the region\u2019s three countries.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Simply put: Were Russia to lose Armenia, the U.S.\/NATO\/EU and pan-Turkism would inevitably dominate the Caucasus\/Caspian and, perhaps, beyond.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Putin understands this.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Georgia and Azerbaijan are, after all, headed <i>away<\/i> from Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Though always under Russian pressure, Georgia\u2019s an unofficial NATO candidate with sizeable Western investments.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>NATO countries and Israel have been modernizing its military.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Tbilisi\u2019s also the<i> <\/i>middleman for Baku\u2019s gas\/oil pipelines extending to Turkey and elsewhere.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Azerbaijan\u2019s fossil fuel deposits, pipelines, and U.S.\/European commercial\/economic ties are well-known.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Less talked about are the Aliyev autocracy\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wnd.com\/2022\/09\/pan-turkisms-aggressive-dreams-empire-yesterday-today\/\"><span class=\"s2\">pan-Turkic ideology<\/span><\/a>; formal alliance with NATO\u2019s Turkey; deployment of international <a href=\"http:\/\/www.intrepidreport.com\/archives\/31207\"><span class=\"s2\">terrorists<\/span><\/a><\/span><span class=\"s2\">;<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> dependence on Israeli <a href=\"https:\/\/www.latimes.com\/world-nation\/story\/2023-10-06\/israeli-arms-quietly-helped-azerbaijan-retake-nagorno-karabakh-to-dismay-of-armenians\"><span class=\"s2\">weapons<\/span><\/a>\/<a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecaliforniacourier.com\/israels-massive-supply-of-sophisticated-weapons-to-azerbaijan\/\"><span class=\"s2\">military prowess<\/span><\/a><\/span><span class=\"s2\">;<\/span><span class=\"s1\"> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rferl.org\/a\/azerbaijan-lobby-us-rights\/26847192.html\"><span class=\"s2\">longtime backing<\/span><\/a> by America\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/countercurrents.org\/2019\/06\/hypocritical-jewish-organizations-and-the-armenian-genocide\/\"><span class=\"s2\">Jewish lobby<\/span><\/a><\/span><span class=\"s2\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Elected ostensibly as a democratic reformist in 2018, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan grew friendlier with the West than had Yerevan\u2019s previous leaders.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">This enraged Putin.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>That\u2019s problematic: Armenia\u2019s dependent on its ally for gas, oil, the nuclear power plant, weapons, remittances from Armenians in Russia, and more.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>However, Pashinyan didn\u2019t break with Moscow.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Nevertheless, Putin resolved to <i>punish and humiliate<\/i> Armenia to force it <i>totally and irrevocably<\/i> under Russian domination.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Punish and Humiliate<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In 2020, <a href=\"https:\/\/caucasuswatch.de\/upload\/big\/news\/16038301215f9881692f25c4.41586199.jpg\"><span class=\"s2\">Putin<\/span><\/a> silently but indisputably greenlighted Azerbaijan, Turkey, international terrorists, and Israel to sledgehammer Christian Armenia and Armenian-populated Artsakh\/Karabagh into submitting to Russia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">We know that near its borders Russia\u2019s extremely NATO-and-terrorist-phobic.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><i>And yet:<\/i><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In Azerbaijan\u2019s 44-day war in 2020 (Sept. 27-Nov. 9) against Artsakh\u2019s Armenians, Turkey<i> openly <\/i>delivered<i> <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/www.al-monitor.com\/originals\/2020\/10\/turkey-azerbaijan-armenia-war-f16-conflict.html\"><span class=\"s2\"><i>American-supplied F-16s<\/i><\/span><\/a><i>, <\/i>Bayraktar drones containing NATO parts, additional weapons, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thecaliforniacourier.com\/turkish-generals-led-war-on-artsakh-this-was-a-turkish-not-azeri-victory\/\"><span class=\"s2\">generals<\/span><\/a>, troops, and<i> <\/i><a href=\"https:\/\/countercurrents.org\/2020\/10\/the-new-kings-of-jihadist-terrorism-azerbaijan-and-turkey\/\"><span class=\"s2\"><i>several thousand<\/i><\/span><\/a><i> <\/i>jihadist terrorists to Azerbaijan. <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Tellingly, the Kremlin was <i>unruffled<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Moreover, Tel Aviv \u2014 the West\u2019s friend, not Moscow\u2019s \u2014 overtly <i>re<\/i>supplied Baku with hi-tech weapons. <span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The Kremlin, again, voiced<i> no particular alarm<\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Post-war, however, Russia revealed that it\u2019d been in charge all along.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>During the fighting, for instance, it was Moscow \u2014 <i>not Baku<\/i> \u2014 that had offered Yerevan a \u201cpeace\u201d deal (which Pashinyan declined).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Artsakh \u2014 gifted to Azerbaijan by Stalin but indigenously Armenian for millennia \u2014 lost the war, as did Armenia.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Buffer zones around Artsakh gained by it in the early 1990s were also forfeited.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Putin\u2019s fingerprints were, not surprisingly, all over the <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/2020_Nagorno-Karabakh_ceasefire_agreement\"><span class=\"s2\">Nov. 9, 2020<\/span><\/a> agreement among Moscow, Yerevan, and Baku.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In what <i>remained<\/i> of Armenian-populated Artsakh,<i> <\/i>the pact <i>awarded Russia<\/i>:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul class=\"ul1\">\n<li class=\"li3\"><span class=\"s4\">An armed, 2000-troop \u201cpeacekeeping\u201d mission <i>plus<\/i> guardianship over the only road \u2014 the Lachin corridor \u2014 between Artsakh and Armenia proper (Points 3\/4\/6).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ul class=\"ul1\">\n<li class=\"li3\"><span class=\"s4\">Military<i> <\/i>control over <i>future<\/i> routes through Armenia between Azerbaijan and its <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=JZu2zqFE_gI\"><span class=\"s2\">Nakhichevan<\/span><\/a> exclave (Point 9).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That Russia greenlighted a war against Armenia\/Artsakh isn\u2019t a total surprise.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Moscow\u2019s always sought to keep Yerevan apprehensive and dependent.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>The Kremlin has for decades<i> <\/i>permitted repeated Azerbaijani attacks on Armenia <i>despite<\/i> Yerevan\u2019s defense pacts with Moscow and the Russian-led CSTO alliance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">None of this is intended to defend PM Pashinyan.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>He has failed and should resign.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">And please ignore the nonsense that Russia, shaken by setbacks in Ukraine, couldn\u2019t prevent the 2020 war.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Putin\u2019s invasion of Ukraine came much <i>later<\/i>: February of 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Punishment Without End<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Throughout 2021-2023, Azerbaijan invaded, occupied, and fortified over 80 sq. miles of Armenia\u2019s internationally recognized southeast.<\/span><span class=\"s1\"><span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Hurling the Azeri attacks in Armenia\u2019s face, the Kremlin sarcastically termed them mere \u201cborder demarcations.\u201d<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>The Azeris are still there.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Russia\/CSTO had again willfully violated their defense treaties with Armenia.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Meanwhile, despite Russia\u2019s 2020 pledge, its \u201cpeacekeepers\u201d permitted incessant Azeri assaults on Artsakh from 2021 on.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Then, in December of 2022, Azerbaijan sent military and other officials disguised as \u201ceco-activists\u201d to block the Lachin corridor.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">The armed \u201cpeacekeepers\u201d could\u2019ve moved the Azeris off the road in 5 minutes.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Instead, the Russians feigned helplessness as food and medical supplies to Artsakh were blocked.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Meanwhile, the well-fed Russian soldiers offered to sell food to the starving Armenians at inflated prices.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Baku also cut off gas, electricity, and communications to Artsakh.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Yet again, despite its signed agreement, Moscow said little and did nothing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">The blockade, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cftjustice.org\/former-international-criminal-court-prosecutor-luis-moreno-ocampo-issued-report-stating-the-blockade-of-nagorno-karabakh-is-genocide\/\"><span class=\"s5\">declared<\/span><\/a> former International Criminal Court prosecutor Luis Moreno Ocampo, fit the UN definition of genocide: \u201cDeliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Thus, \u201cChristian\u201d Russia and its half-Turkic Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu blatantly violated<i> <\/i>Nov. 9, 2020\u2019s accord while Artsakh was attacked and starved.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">On September 14, 2023, Acting U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Yuri Kim <a href=\"https:\/\/hetq.am\/en\/article\/160086\"><span class=\"s5\">testified<\/span><\/a> that the Biden administration \u201cwill not countenance any effort \u2014 short-term or long-term \u2014 to ethnically cleanse Artsakh.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span class=\"s1\">Then came September 19\u2019s genocidal cleansing.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>Genocidal Cleansing<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Azerbaijan launched a genocidal military assault on Artsakh.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>120,000 Armenians fled their democracy of 30+ years lest they be murdered if they stayed.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Some were, in fact, killed, tortured, and murdered.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Russian \u201cpeacekeepers\u201d let it happen. No surprise.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Artsakh\u2019s millennia-long nationhood \u2014 gone in a flash.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">The White House clearly \u201ccountenanced\u201d the cleansing, as did Europe and the UN.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>America often prioritizes authoritarian regimes over human rights and common decency.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p6\"><span class=\"s6\">The Lemkin Institute for Genocide Prevention recently issued a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.lemkininstitute.com\/red-flag-alerts\/red-flag-alert-for-genocide---azerbaijan-in-armenia\"><span class=\"s2\">Red Flag Alert<\/span><\/a> \u201c<\/span><span class=\"s1\">due to the alarming potential for an invasion of Armenia by Azerbaijan in the coming days and weeks.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-194909\" src=\"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/694px-Caucasus_regions_map2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"694\" height=\"600\" srcset=\"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/694px-Caucasus_regions_map2.png 694w, https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/11\/694px-Caucasus_regions_map2-300x259.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 694px) 100vw, 694px\" \/><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\"><b>The Geopolitical Future<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Russia has certainly not finished punishing Armenia and PM Pashinyan.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Invasions by Azerbaijan and even Turkey are quite possible.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">In that case, Russia would likely \u201csave\u201d Armenia, which would sign over its sovereignty to Moscow.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Armenia might even become a Russian Union State, like Belarus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Assuming <i>near total Russian control of Armenia<\/i>, the U.S.\/NATO\/EU would find it very difficult to totally penetrate the Caucasus even if Armenia\u2019s borders with Turkey\/Azerbaijan eventually open.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Putin\u2019s been trying for years to entice Turkey and Azerbaijan into his web.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>The Turkic twins have played along but aren\u2019t fooled.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">But as Russia rightly fears pan-Turkism, it would probably permit only <i>limited <\/i>penetration through Armenia by Ankara and Baku.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Thus, a Russian-controlled Armenia would become a buffer, not a U.S.\/NATO\/EU pathway.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>But nothing is certain.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">To keep the West totally at bay, Russia could invade Georgia and control the pipelines originating from Azerbaijan.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Another danger to Russia would be an <i>extraterritorial corridor<\/i> (not just the existing roads) from Turkey through northwest Iran \u2014 occupied by masses of Azeri speakers \u2014 to Azerbaijan.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">That\u2019s one reason why Turkey, Azerbaijan, and probably the U.S. and Israel wish to dismember Iran, attach its northwest to Azerbaijan, and cut off Armenia\u2019s access to Iran.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>Moscow and Tehran know this well.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Will Russia\u2019s punishment of Armenia ultimately benefit the Kremlin?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p1\"><span class=\"s1\">Or will Russia receive its just desserts for the vile, unwarranted punishment of its ally?<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p7\"><span class=\"s1\"><b><i>David Boyajian\u2019s primary foreign policy focus is the Caucasus.<span class=\"Apple-converted-space\">\u00a0 <\/span>His work can be found at <\/i><\/b><a href=\"https:\/\/armeniapedia.org\/wiki\/David_Boyajian\"><span class=\"s7\"><b><i>https:\/\/armeniapedia.org\/wiki\/David_Boyajian<\/i><\/b><\/span><\/a><b><i>. Twitter: @Boyajian_Writer<\/i><\/b><\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"p8\" style=\"text-align: center;\"><span class=\"s1\"><b># # #<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-194906","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194906","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=194906"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194906\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=194906"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=194906"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=194906"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}