{"id":209023,"date":"2024-02-04T14:18:08","date_gmt":"2024-02-04T18:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=209023"},"modified":"2024-02-04T14:18:08","modified_gmt":"2024-02-04T18:18:08","slug":"financial-d-day-10-trillion-in-us-treasuries-coming-to-the-market-in-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=209023","title":{"rendered":"<h2><b>FINANCIAL D-DAY! $10 Trillion in US Treasuries Coming to the Market in 2024<\/b><\/h2>"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!--more-->Torsten Sl\u00f8k<br \/>\nApollo Chief Economist<\/p>\n<p>A record $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year, see the first chart below. The government budget deficit in 2024 will be $1.4 trillion according to the CBO, and the Fed has been running down its balance sheet by $60 billion per month.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The bottom line is that someone will need to buy more than $10 trillion in US government bonds in 2024.\u00a0<\/strong>That is more than one-third of US government debt outstanding. And more than one-third of US GDP.<\/p>\n<p>This may be a particular challenge when the biggest holders of US Treasuries, namely foreigners, continue to shrink their share, see the second chart.<\/p>\n<p><strong>More fundamentally, interest rate-sensitive balance sheets such as households, pension, and insurance have been the biggest buyers of Treasuries in 2023, and the question is whether they will continue to buy once the Fed starts cutting rates.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Our updated outlook for Treasury demand is\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/OutlookForDemandForTreasuries2024-0203.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">available here<\/a>.<\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-42324\" src=\"https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart1.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1366px) 100vw, 1366px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart1.jpg 1366w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart1-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart1-400x225.jpg 400w\" alt=\"A record-high $8.9 trillion of government debt will mature over the next year\" width=\"1366\" height=\"768\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Treasury, BEA, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-42325\" src=\"https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart2.jpg\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1366px) 100vw, 1366px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart2.jpg 1366w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart2-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart2-1024x576.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart2-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/02\/Feb03-Chart2-400x225.jpg 400w\" alt=\"Trend decline in foreign ownership of US government bonds since 2015\" width=\"1366\" height=\"768\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Source: Treasury, Haver Analytics, Apollo Chief Economist<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/10-trillion-in-us-treasuries-coming-to-the-market-in-2024\/\">https:\/\/apolloacademy.com\/10-trillion-in-us-treasuries-coming-to-the-market-in-2024\/<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-209023","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209023","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=209023"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/209023\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=209023"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=209023"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=209023"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}