{"id":247288,"date":"2024-08-23T07:55:18","date_gmt":"2024-08-23T11:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=247288"},"modified":"2024-08-23T07:55:18","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T11:55:18","slug":"the-22-counties-that-prove-joe-biden-stole-the-2020-election-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=247288","title":{"rendered":"

The 22 Counties That Prove Joe Biden Stole the 2020 Election<\/b><\/h2>"},"content":{"rendered":"

<\/p>\n

The Fall of the Bellwether Counties<\/strong><\/h1>\n

Posted by ElectionFraud20.org<\/a><\/p>\n

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There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. These are the \u201cbellwether\u201d counties.<\/strong><\/h3>\n

But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

How did the others all get it so wrong?<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Let\u2019s take a closer look.<\/strong><\/h3>\n
\n<\/blockquote>\n

Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. They have a rare and unique property of having a perfect demographic mix that allows them to vote for either party based on the merits of each election, and always get it right.<\/p>\n

(Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. Don\u2019t simply gloss over this. Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! It requires a lot more than \u201cpure luck\u201d.)<\/p>\n

It far surpasses any \u201cstatistical\u201d explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population.<\/p>\n

Their concerns are real. Their hopes are real. The matters that way on their minds are real. Their emotions and decision making process are real. They are not a \u201cstatistical\u201d curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole country\u2019s sentiment.<\/p>\n

Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.)<\/p>\n

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Contents<\/div>\n
    \n
  1. What does it take for a county to be a bellwether?<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. Are some bellwethers better than others?<\/a><\/li>\n
  3. Which counties are the best at \u201cswinging\u201d?<\/a><\/li>\n
  4. What about counties that are great at \u201cswitching\u201d?<\/a><\/li>\n
  5. Recent \u201cswitch\u201d counties<\/a><\/li>\n
  6. Summary<\/a><\/li>\n
  7. Conclusion<\/a><\/li>\n
  8. Visitor Comments<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n

    What does it take for a county to be a bellwether?<\/h2>\n

    Let\u2019s turn the clock back to 1988.<\/p>\n

    For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    1988<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    1992<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n switch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    1996<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2000<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n switch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2004<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2008<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n switch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2012<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    2016<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n switch<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included).<\/p>\n

    If bellwethers were just a \u201cstatistical curiosity\u201d and purely random, we could expect half of these counties to pick the winning party at the 2020 election.<\/p>\n

    But there was only\u00a0one county<\/em>\u00a0\u2013 Clallam,\u00a0Washington<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 which voted Democrat. All other 21 counties voted Republican.<\/p>\n

    It is easy to gloss over this. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than \u201cstatistical curiosities\u201d, but let\u2019s assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply\u2026<\/p>\n

    If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. What are the odds of getting 21 \u201cheads\u201d or 21 \u201ctails\u201d?<\/p>\n

    The probability is hard to comprehend, so let\u2019s figure it out for real. Let\u2019s find a coin, and flip it.<\/p>\n

    Really \u2026 stop reading. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row.<\/p>\n

    Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved.<\/p>\n

    You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22\u2026!<\/p>\n

    Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers don\u2019t just have a random 50% chance at winning \u2014 we should expect them to have a\u00a0better than 50% chance<\/em>\u00a0of getting it right.<\/p>\n

    For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them \u201cbellwether\u201d counties.<\/p>\n

    The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. That is 19 counties still standing after 10 elections! (From a purely random statistics perspective, there should only be 1 or 2 standing. The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the\u00a0incredible predictive abilities<\/strong>\u00a0of these counties.)<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in\u00a0one election cycle<\/strong>\u00a0and we are supposed to believe that is \u201cnormal\u201d?<\/p>\n

    The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is\u00a0extremely<\/strong>\u00a0remote!<\/p>\n

    Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n

    Here are the concepts we have established so far:<\/p>\n

      \n
    1. Bellwether counties are not just \u201cstatistical curiosities\u201d<\/li>\n
    2. The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is\u00a0extremely<\/strong>\u00a0unlikely<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      This is just the beginning. It gets a lot more interesting\u2026<\/p>\n

      Are some bellwethers better than others?<\/h2>\n

      Let\u2019s introduce a new concept: the \u201cquality\u201d of prediction. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment.<\/p>\n

      How so?<\/em><\/p>\n

      Well, let\u2019s consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. In other words, how\u00a0strongly<\/em>\u00a0do they swing to the winning party?<\/p>\n

      The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election:<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      There are only 4 counties.<\/p>\n

      To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include \u201cmodern\u201d bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. In other words, we are including more counties that are more likely to vote for the Democrat party.<\/p>\n

      Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. They are:<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Outstanding. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. It clearly shows they hold no allegiances and will vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them at each election. They simply vote on merit.<\/p>\n

      Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by?<\/p>\n

      We know these counties are the \u201cbest of the best\u201d at predicting the election winner. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by.<\/p>\n

      Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020?<\/p>\n

      How many of these counties voted less for the Republican party in 2020? (It will at least show a\u00a0trend<\/strong>\u00a0away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation.)<\/p>\n

      You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site:\u00a0politico.com\/2020-election\/results<\/a>
      \n(Go to the bottom of the page. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.)<\/p>\n

      Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome!<\/p>\n

      If the Republican percentage in 2020 is less than in 2016, it would clearly indicate a change in sentiment away from the Republican party, towards the Democrat party. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment.<\/p>\n

      Which counties are the best at \u201cswinging\u201d?<\/h2>\n

      In this section we will introduce a new concept: The \u201cswing\u201d county.<\/p>\n

      A \u201cswing\u201d county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election.<\/p>\n

      To make things more interesting we will only look at \u201cswing\u201d counties since the 2004 election. (i.e. We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.)<\/p>\n

      So, for our purposes, a \u201cswing\u201d county would have voted as follows:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      2004<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      2008<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n switch of party<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      2012<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      2016<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n switch of party<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

      There are\u00a080<\/strong>\u00a0such counties. Let\u2019s rank these counties from \u201chighest to lowest\u201d Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. (See the \u201cDPV 08\u201d column in the image below.) These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020.<\/p>\n

      Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008:<\/p>\n

      \"\"<\/p>\n

      How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020?<\/p>\n

      You can find the answer by searching\u00a0politico.com\/2020-election\/results<\/a><\/p>\n

      We\u2019re not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. Go on, look them up! Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020.<\/p>\n

      Summary:<\/strong><\/p>\n

      Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far:<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. Bellwether counties are not just \u201cstatistical curiosities\u201d<\/li>\n
      2. The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is\u00a0extremely<\/em>\u00a0unlikely<\/li>\n
      3. We have identified and analyzed the \u201cbest of the best\u201d bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.)<\/li>\n
      4. We looked at the most recent \u201cswing\u201d counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        What about counties that are great at \u201cswitching\u201d?<\/h2>\n

        We will now introduce another new concept, called a \u201cswitch\u201d county. A \u201cswitch\u201d county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent.<\/p>\n

        TIP:<\/strong>\u00a0You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are \u201crelaxing\u201d the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election.<\/p>\n

        Concretely, a \u201cswitch\u201d county would have voted for the following parties:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
        1992<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n switch of party<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        2000<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n switch of party<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        2008<\/strong><\/td>\nDemocrat<\/td>\n switch of party<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
        2016<\/strong><\/td>\nRepublican<\/td>\n switch of party<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

        (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.)<\/p>\n

        There are\u00a0150<\/strong>\u00a0such counties.<\/p>\n

        It is important to realise these counties have\u00a0no allegiances whatsoever<\/em>\u00a0and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit.<\/p>\n

        Here are the top 30 sorted by the \u201chighest to lowest\u201d Democrat percentage vote in 2008, that\u2019s the \u201cDPV 08\u201d column:<\/p>\n

        \"\"<\/p>\n

        Here\u2019s what you need to look into:<\/p>\n