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<\/p>\nby Mark E. Jeftovic<\/p>\n
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For a little over a year, before all this began, I setup a news alert filter for the words \u201cexperts say\u201d in the headline. It\u2019s provided a non-stop stream of puerile idiocy ever since. Once Coronavirus hit, the shreik-o-meter has been cranked to the level where I almost need to turn it off for my own sanity.<\/p>\n
What it does do is vividly illustrate how the media frames events and how divorced from actual reality those narratives really are.<\/span><\/p>\n Today\u2019s example is the bottom one in my latest alert,\u00a023,000 Floridians projected to die from COVID-19 by February, experts say\u2026<\/strong><\/p>\n When I read that, it sounds like between now and February, 23,000 Floridians will die\u00a0from Covid.\u00a0<\/em>When you\u00a0click through to the link<\/a>, the headline is changed from \u201cby February\u201d to \u201cby March\u201d, so let\u2019s use March for our calculations and give it until the end of March, which is 137 days away.<\/p>\n For 23,000 Floridian souls to die\u00a0from\u00a0<\/em>Covid by March 31, it would\u00a0mean 167.4 fatalities per day<\/strong>. When we pull\u00a0up Florida COVID-19 stats<\/a>, we see we\u2019d a similar pattern that I reported on in the\u00a0\u201cFollow the science!\u201d post<\/a>, for the loudest, most hysterical prognostications to be fulfilled. Actual fatalities are in a pronounced downtrend, and to hit this number the data would have to blast off at a near vertical incline\u00a0right now.<\/em><\/p>\n Via https:\/\/floridahealthcovid19.gov\/#latest-stats<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/p>\n That\u2019s how the headline reads to me. If what they really meant to say was \u201cBy February, the cumulative death toll from COVID-19 will be 23,000\u201d, there are ways to convey that in a headline, like\u00a0\u201cCOVID-19 Death toll to hit 23,000 by March, experts say\u201d.\u00a0<\/strong>It still sounds scary enough to draw in the clicks, especially if people don\u2019t know that 17,445 Floridians have succumbed\u00a0with\u00a0<\/em>COVID-19 already.<\/p>\n That means (carry the 1, \u2026.) by the end of March, an additional 5,556 Floridians will die\u00a0with\u00a0<\/em>COVID-19. That\u2019s\u00a040 per day<\/strong>, which is\u00a0still higher<\/em>\u00a0than the current trend, even if you factor in that additional fatalities may very well be added onto the most recent 5 or 6 data points in a rolling fashion.<\/p>\n Also, notice how I keep writing that these fatalities, sad as they are, will die\u00a0with\u00a0<\/em>COVID, not\u00a0of\u00a0<\/em>it. We know already from both CDC and WHO data that co-morbidities are present in as many as 96% of all fatalities (even though\u00a0I did say previously<\/a>\u00a0that I think the remaining 6% \u201cdeath by COVID\u201d number is higher than 6%).<\/p>\n All of which shows, when you look at the total deaths in a state like Florida, which looks like about 200,000\/annually, across all causes (this is 2016 data here)<\/a>, approximately 547 Floridians pass on every day. Even if the headline read as seems (23K deaths between now and March), it would make for in increase in absolute fatality rate of about 20%, 1\/5th. Which would be very bad, but not civilization ending catastrophic.<\/p>\n As it stands however, when you factor the 23K is the end of a cumulative series, we\u2019re talking about a 0.07x increase (7%) in absolute death rate, and that\u2019s\u00a0if\u00a0<\/em>every single fatality is\u00a0of\u00a0<\/em>COVID as opposed to\u00a0with\u00a0<\/em>COVID.<\/p>\n So even there, the numbers are not as bad as the media makes them out to be. As I said before, all of this\u00a0should be<\/em>\u00a0good news! So why are the major media outlets hysterically shrieking at us that our way of life is over forever instead of delivering the good news that we could be closer to the end of this thing than the beginning?<\/p>\n I\u2019ll leave with a montage around Anthony Fauci telling Americans to basically shut up and do what they\u2019re told.\u00a0 Americans may prefer to tell him to Fauc-off instead.<\/em><\/p>\n https:\/\/youtu.be\/uvVSjXkpUpQ<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/outofthecave.io\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/11\/experts-say2.png\")
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