{"id":50224,"date":"2021-01-28T18:29:35","date_gmt":"2021-01-28T22:29:35","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=50224"},"modified":"2021-01-28T18:29:35","modified_gmt":"2021-01-28T22:29:35","slug":"did-mcconnell-really-win-the-filibuster-battle","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=50224","title":{"rendered":"Did McConnell really win the filibuster battle?"},"content":{"rendered":"

A Historic Turning-Point in American Politics<\/h1>\n

Eric Zuesse<\/p>\n

UPDATE: on January 26th, Newsweek headlined\u00a0\u201cMitch McConnell Wins Filibuster Battle as Primary Pressure Builds on Chuck Schumer\u201d<\/a>, which (as is explained in the following) means that unless Senate Democrats now use \u201cthe Nuclear Option\u201d \u2014 which they resist doing \u2014 Biden\u2019s Presidency will be a failure.<\/div>\n
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The success or failure of Joe Biden\u2019s Presidency will be determined more by the policies that he establishes in order to deal with America\u2019s raging coronavirus-crisis than by anything else. And the fates of both of America\u2019s political Parties will also largely depend upon these decisions, which he is making at the very start of his Presidency. In normal times, an American President\u2019s first 100 days in office are crucially important; but, this time around, the first 30 days will probably be decisive. The signs, thus far, are not looking good, for his success. Here is why:<\/div>\n
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On January 22nd, Politico headlined\u00a0\u201cRepublicans bludgeon Biden’s big stimulus plans\u201d<\/a>\u00a0and reported that the Senate\u2019s Republicans have decided to block President Biden\u2019s Covid-19 relief package unless Biden will cut it in ways that would prevent it from doing what Biden has long been promising to do. Either he will fulfill his promises on Covid-19 policies, or he will compromise with Senate Republicans. However, there is a way in which Biden and the Senate\u2019s Democrats would become enabled to overcome that block (it\u2019s called\u00a0\u201cthe Nuclear Option\u201d)<\/a>, but doing so would delay the legislation and would require changing the rules of the Senate, which would require even further delays. Democratic and Republican Senators would then basically lock horns in battle against one-another and fight to the political death, over Covid-19 (coronavirus) policies. Whichever side would quit the contest sooner would be embarrassed amongst its electorate, and would therefore produce a significantly weakened Party.<\/div>\n
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The victorious side will probably control Biden\u2019s Presidency. Either the Democrats will outlast the Republicans, who will be profoundly embarrassed (especially because the polling shows that the position of congressional Republicans on coronavirus-policy is\u00a0rejected overwhelmingly by the American public<\/a>), or else the Republicans will outlast the Democrats, who will be profoundly embarrassed (by having caved so fast to congressional Republicans on this matter where Biden and congressional Democrats have an overwhelming political advantage over their supposed \u2018opponents\u2019).<\/div>\n
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If Democratic Senators win on it, then not only will Republican Senators lose the support of some Republican voters (who favor passage of Biden\u2019s proposal and who therefore don\u2019t want Republican Senators to force a delay of its passage), but Republican Senators who had voted with Democrats on this will be challenged in 2022 and 2024 primaries by more-extreme Republican candidates who will call the incumbent a \u201cRINO\u201d \u201cRepublican In Name Only\u201d for having capitulated to the Democrats. So, some of the less-extreme Republican Senators will probably lose their seats. If, however, to the contrary, Republicans win, then not only will President Biden have been defeated in his first legislative initiative (and his Presidency will have been hobbled at its very start), but Democratic Senators who have sided with Republican Senators on this and who will be running for re-election in 2022 and 2024, will be challenged in primaries by progressive Democratic candidates who will call that Democratic incumbent a \u201cDINO\u201d \u201cDemocrat In Name Only.\u201d So: either the Republican Party in the Senate will be moving farther to the right, if Democrats win on the coronavirus legislation, or else the Democratic Party in the Senate will be moving farther to the left if Republicans win on it. And there is no way in which Biden\u2019s campaign promises to function as President in a bipartisan manner will be able to be achieved.<\/div>\n
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In other words: this is going to be a fight to the political death of either the Democratic or the Republican Party. And the chasm separating the two Parties is virtually certain to become even wider than it has been.<\/div>\n
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Any compromise on coronavirus-policy by Biden would be widely seen (by Republican and many independent voters) as his conceding to the Republicans the superiority of their position regarding any area on which he had conceded (such as Republicans\u2019 belief that \u201cdeficit spending is bad\u201d) \u2014 and his doing that would greatly weaken him going forward (especially because\u00a0Americans support Biden\u2019s announced Covid plan by over 2 to 1<\/a>, and\u00a059% even of Republican voters<\/a>\u00a0support Biden\u2019s requirement regarding the wearing of masks and social distancing at commercial establishments).<\/div>\n
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Any compromise by the Republicans on it would likewise be damaging to them. However, they don\u2019t control the federal Government now, and, so, they wouldn\u2019t be blamed as much. Nominally, Democrats control all three electoral branches of the federal Government.<\/div>\n
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Furthermore: Biden will get more of the praise or blame for whatever legislation ends up resulting from this than will the Republican Party. Whereas Republican voters will be able to say \u201cWe lost because the damned Democrats control the Government,\u201d Democratic voters won\u2019t be able to say \u201cWe lost because the damned Republicans control the Government.\u201d If Democratic voters turn out to be disappointed with the outcome, then they won\u2019t have any excuse for it \u2014 other than to increase yet further their hatred of Republicans if Biden and the Democrats turn out to be the capitulationist side.<\/div>\n
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In any case, Biden is obviously not going to be able to fulfill on his promises that he will be a bipartisan President. That fact (the mythological character of \u2018bipartisanship\u2019 in today\u2019s America), alone, is certain to weaken him \u2014 though not nearly as much as would be the case if he holds firm, refuses to compromise on Covid-19, and defeats congressional Republicans on this issue that\u2019s\u00a0vastly more important to Democratic Party voters than it is to Republican Party voters<\/a>.<\/div>\n
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This situation is similar to what had pertained when Barack Obama became President in 2009 and dumped his proposed \u201cpublic option\u201d\u00a0the moment he won the Presidency in November 2008<\/a>. However (as was made manifestly clear during the 2008 Democratic primaries, when Obama handily beat Biden, Clinton, and Edwards), Biden\u2019s hold on the Democratic Party won\u2019t be nearly as solid as Obama\u2019s was, if Biden capitulates on this issue, which is so important to Democrats. Whereas a comprehensive public option, or else universalized Medicare, is a do-or-die issue only for\u00a0some<\/i>\u00a0Democratic Party voters, conquering Covid-19 is a do-or-die issue for\u00a0virtually all<\/i>\u00a0Democratic Party voters.<\/div>\n
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Back in 2009, the Republican crisis that the incoming Democratic President was dealing with \u2014 the economic collapse and the\u00a0lie-based<\/a>\u00a0invasion\/occupation of Iraq \u2014 wasn\u2019t killing four thousand Americans per day like the coronavirus-crisis now is. Just as Trump will be blamed for America\u2019s disastrously poor performance in the coronavirus-crisis (a higher infection-rate\u00a0than any other medium-sized or large nation<\/a>), Biden will get either the praise or the blame for his effectiveness or ineffectiveness at reversing that Republican failure. Congressional Republicans will politically benefit if Biden fails. Any compromises that Biden allows on the Covid-19 relief package are not going to buy for him a \u201cWe are all in this together\u201d response from Republicans in Congress, but will only buy for him a less effective policy, which will (quite reasonably) be seen by the American public as being, essentially, a Democratic policy (which had failed).<\/div>\n
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This is the way that America\u2019s Party system now functions: the incentive for our political leaders is not to benefit the American people, but to benefit the given political leader\u2019s own Party, in competition against the other Party, in an extremely polarized electorate. But is it actually\u00a0instead<\/i>\u00a0merely a competition between Democratic Party billionaires (who fund Democratic candidates) versus Republican Party billionaires (who fund Republican candidates)? Has the electorate become virtually irrelevant, so that the Government now reflects only those billionaires, who fund whatever politicians serve billionaires\u2019 personal interests? (And those personal interests are always wanting more tax-dollars to buy the weaponry that their armaments-firms make, and less to buy \u201csocial welfare programs,\u201d such as Covid relief payments.)<\/div>\n
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Regardless of which side ends up winning on the Covid-19 relief law, that side will likely control the U.S. Government for a long time to come, because the other Party will be so politically damaged \u2014 discredited \u2014 by having lost this fight, which is a do-or-die battle between America\u2019s Republicans and America\u2019s Democrats.<\/div>\n
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Actually, however, Democrats have far more \u201cskin in this game\u201d (or at stake) in this battle, than Republicans do, because Democrats care vastly more about the coronavirus-issue than Republicans do. For example, on 21 October 2020 (which was already well into the \u201csecond wave\u201d), Pew bannered\u00a0\u201cOnly 24% of Trump supporters view the coronavirus outbreak as a \u2018very important\u2019 voting issue\u201d<\/a>\u00a0and reported that, \u201cthe widest differences are on the importance of the coronavirus outbreak. About eight-in-ten Biden supporters (82%) say the coronavirus will be very important to their vote, compared with just 24% of Trump supporters.\u201d Consequently, if Biden and congressional Democrats cave on this, then they are actually not serious about winning on it. By contrast, this issue is, indeed, a do-or-die matter for Democratic Party voters. Whereas congressional Republicans can afford to lose on it, both Biden and congressional Democrats simply cannot (without greatly weakening their Party).<\/div>\n
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Normally, America\u2019s two Parties play a \u2018good cop\u2019 versus \u2018bad cop\u2019 routine with each other, in which\u00a0both<\/i>\u00a0Parties represent positions that are acceptable to all of America\u2019s billionaires, who\u00a0provide most of the money that\u2019s donated in political campaigns<\/a>\u00a0(and it\u2019s\u00a0the decisive money<\/a>, so that the politicians usually \u201ccompromise\u201d upon a policy, which represents the billionaires\u2019 views \u2014 such a \u201ccompromise\u201d represents\u00a0only<\/i>\u00a0billionaires, regardless of which \u2018Party\u2019 wins). But that deceit won\u2019t be able to work for Democratic Party politicians, this time around, though it still could work for Republican ones, since those voters don\u2019t care nearly as much about Covid-19. Therefore, a Republican capitulation on it wouldn\u2019t be fatal for the Party. To them, it would be only a minor loss. But a Democratic capitulation on it could sink Biden\u2019s Presidency and any Democrat who participated in such a capitulation. Democratic Party voters would find such a capitulation very hard to accept, and progressives who might challenge capitulationists on it, in Democratic Party primaries in 2018 and 2022, would therefore stand outstanding likelihoods of winning.<\/div>\n
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In the past, Democratic Party voters (just like Republican Party voters) continued voting for the Party no matter how bad it became; but, this time, that might turn out not to be the case. This time, \u201cbipartisanship\u201d could actually sink the Democratic Party \u2014 or else cause it to replace lots of its incumbent \u2018moderate\u2019 or \u2018centrist\u2019 office-holders. (After all: Biden was supposed to be the \u2018moderate\u2019 or \u2018centrist\u2019 candidate in the Democratic Party Presidential primaries; so, this is not as if there would be a compromise being sought between congressional Republicans and a President Bernie Sanders. Democrats had\u00a0already<\/i>\u00a0made their compromises, when they voted for Biden in the 2020 Democratic Party primaries. He was \u2018Mr. centrist\u2019; and, so, compromising with the Republicans\u00a0now<\/i>\u00a0would only move the Democratic Party\u00a0itself<\/i>\u00a0even farther toward the right, and thus\u00a0away<\/i>\u00a0from what the Party\u2019s voters want.)<\/div>\n
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Furthermore, on Sunday, January 24th, \u201caccording<\/a>\u00a0to\u00a0a new ABC News\/Ipsos poll released Sunday<\/a>, \u2026 the more than two-thirds of Americans who approve of his [Biden\u2019s] leadership on the coronavirus includes 40% of Republicans — a notably high level of support from across the aisle a year into the pandemic. An overwhelming 97% of Democrats and 70% of independents also back Biden’s management of the crisis in his early days in office.\u201d Question #1 in that poll was\u00a0\u201cDo you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling the response to the coronavirus (COVID-19)?\u201d<\/a>\u00a0 69% answered \u201cApprove.\u201d 29% answered \u201cDisapprove.\u201d Only 2% did neither. The pollsters\u00a0said<\/a>: \u201cFour in five (81%) support federal mask requirements, including nearly all Democrats (99%) and a majority of Republicans and Independents (59% and 83%, respectively).\u201d\u00a0Another poll<\/a>, issued the following day (on January 25th) found that 59% of Republican voters \u201csupport\u201d Biden\u2019s proposed Covid-relief spending amount, of $1.9 trillion. In other words: there is\u00a0overwhelming public support for the announced Covid-relief proposals by Biden<\/i>. If he refuses to instruct his Party-leadership in Congress to do whatever they must do in order to defeat the Republicans on this, then he is accepting defeat not only of himself, but of the overwhelming majority of Americans who support his announced plan. Why would he do something like that? Perhaps in order to satisfy his\u00a0political mega-donors<\/a>\u00a0(who made him the President)? It would enormously weaken the Democratic Party.<\/div>\n
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Also on the 24th,\u00a0The Hill<\/i>\u00a0 bannered\u00a0\u201cBiden officials hold call with bipartisan group of senators on coronavirus relief plan\u201d<\/a>.\u00a0 Then, on January 25th they headlined\u00a0\u201cModerates vow to ‘be a force’ under Biden\u201d<\/a>, and reported that,<\/div>\n
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\u201cThe numbers are so tight. All of us want this place to work. We\u2019ve got a golden opportunity to make it work, we really do. And our bipartisan, bicameral group<\/i>\u00a0[the most strongly billionaire-controlled members of Congress]\u00a0is going to be a force, and when I say a force, we\u2019re going to try to find that middle,\u201d said Sen. Joe Manchin (W.Va.), the most outspoken Senate Democratic centrist.\u00a0<\/i><\/div>\n
Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R-W.Va.), another member of the group, said their objective was to \u201ctry to get results and avoid a lot of the stalemates that we\u2019ve had in the past.\u201d\u00a0<\/i><\/div>\n
In the House, the bipartisan Problem Solvers Caucus added 16 new members, bringing its total to 56 members.<\/i><\/div>\n
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Either Biden wants not to beat the Republicans on this, or else he is willing to compromise in ways that Republicans have never done in this century \u2014 or both. But regardless of what the reason is, the indications, as of the fifth day of his Presidency, were that his Presidency would become a colossal failure \u2014 not only for the American people, but also for his own Party. After all: he would then be \u2018compromising\u2019 even to the right of most\u00a0Republican<\/i>\u00a0voters, on this matter. And whom would he then actually be serving, in order to do that?<\/div>\n
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As was said earlier here: \u201cThe victorious side will probably control Biden\u2019s Presidency. Either the Democrats will outlast the Republicans, who will be profoundly embarrassed, or else the Republicans will outlast the Democrats, who will be profoundly embarrassed.\u201d Furthermore: \u201cDemocrats have far more \u2018skin in this game\u2019 (or at stake) in this battle, than Republicans do, because Democrats care vastly more about the coronavirus-issue than Republicans do.\u201d However, despite all of that, there seems to be no public indication that the leading congressional Democrats actually want to win this battle. They \u2014 and\u00a0not<\/i>\u00a0congressional Republicans \u2014 appear set to become politically very embarrassed, and defeated, in whatever Covid-19 legislation becomes passed. As the progressive Democrat and investigative journalist David Sirota headlined, about this, on January 26th,\u00a0\u201cReminder: This Never Ends Well.<\/a>\u00a0Signals of retreat on the $2,000 checks echo Democrats\u2019 disastrous surrender on the public option in 2009.\u201d<\/div>\n
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Furthermore, the Brookings Institution, in\u00a0its detailed article about eliminating Senate filibusters<\/a>, noted that, \u201cFor his part,\u00a0Biden told reporters in July<\/a>\u00a0that \u2018depend[ing] on how obstreperous [Republicans] become \u2026 I think you\u2019re going to just have to take a look\u2019 at abolishing the procedure.\u201d So, Biden certainly has to be aware, by now, that he must demand that the Senate\u2019s leader, Democrat Charles Schumer, not only take the Nuclear Option, but go all the way to abolishing filibusters altogether, for anything \u2014 ending the practice, altogether. If Biden won\u2019t go for a democratic (and that means majority-rule, on all matters except where the Constitution itself specifies instead a two-thirds majority) Senate, then Biden\u2019s Presidency will inevitably fail. Apparently, he\u2019s aware of this, himself. The choice is his to make, but he would need to make clear to the public that Senate filibusters are anti-democratic and need to be eliminated altogether. Only then could he put the pressure on Schumer to get it done. This is the time to do it.<\/div>\n
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If any of America\u2019s billionaires who invested millions of dollars in getting Biden into the White House wants\u00a0really<\/i>\u00a0to beat the Republican Party, then why are none of them now flooding their \u2018news\u2019 media with articles and commentaries making clear that this issue is do-or-die for Biden\u2019s Presidency? Why isn\u2019t Biden\u00a0himself<\/i>\u00a0saying he\u2019s going to beat congressional Republicans on Covid-19 policy \u2014 not compromise with them on it? What does all of this \u2018bipartisanship\u2019 indicate about the political\u00a0reality<\/i>\u00a0in today\u2019s America? Is this political reality (the fakery of \u2018bipartisanship\u2019) what\u2019s being reported on by America\u2019s mainstream \u2018news\u2019 media? Or, are Americans being informed of it (that it\u00a0is<\/i>\u00a0 fake), instead,\u00a0only<\/i>\u00a0in independent news-media, such as publish the present article?<\/div>\n
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For any Party, there actually are some things on which they will\u00a0not<\/i>\u00a0compromise. If Covid-19 policy isn\u2019t one of those policy-issues for a Democratic President and for all Democrats in Congress, at a time like this, then what\u00a0does<\/i>\u00a0that Party\u00a0actually<\/i>\u00a0stand for? If they will capitulate on this, then what\u00a0won\u2019t<\/i>\u00a0 they capitulate on? That is why this issue will constitute a historical turning-point in American politics. It is a very stark test of American\u00a0\u2018democracy\u2019<\/a>. It is that, if\u00a0anything<\/i>\u00a0is. Will the U.S. Government pass this test, of whether or not this nation is a democracy? Will the American people get the coronavirus-policy that all the polls show that they overwhelmingly want? Perhaps the answer will be clear on this, within the next week or two.<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A Historic Turning-Point in American Politics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-50224","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50224","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=50224"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50224\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=50224"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=50224"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=50224"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}