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Illustration: Shoshana Gordon\/Axios<\/p><\/div>\n
The Biden administration is intensely scrutinizing coronavirus vaccines’ effectiveness over time, facing the daunting task of timing booster shots right while still convincing the unvaccinated that getting the jab is worthwhile.<\/p>\n
The bottom line:\u00a0<\/strong>The vaccines still work incredibly well at protecting against severe disease and death, meaning the benefits of getting vaccinated are immense. But it’s less clear how well they’re working at preventing infection, which has huge public health implications with so many Americans still unvaccinated.<\/p>\n \u201cI think everybody believes<\/strong>\u00a0this wanes over time, the question is to what extent,\u201d a senior Biden official said. \u201cNobody wants to be behind the eight-ball here. We want to catch it before there\u2019s an issue, and that\u2019s why there is very intense scrutiny.\u201d<\/p>\n Where it stands:\u00a0<\/strong>All of the vaccines continue to offer almost 100% protection against death, and extremely strong protection against serious illness. Those findings have stayed consistent across the whole world.<\/p>\n Details:\u00a0<\/strong>Specific numbers vary from study to study and country to country, but directionally, there seems to be a clear trend:<\/p>\n The big question<\/strong>: If the vaccines are losing some of their punch against mild infections now, will they eventually become less effective against severe disease?<\/p>\n What\u2019s next:\u00a0<\/strong>There\u2019s a relatively simple solution to this problem \u2014 booster shots. Pfizer and Moderna are already working on them, and Israel has had good results after beginning to offer additional doses to older citizens.<\/p>\n Between the lines:\u00a0<\/strong>The mounting evidence of waning efficacy adds new urgency to the debate in the U.S. about boosters, but that debate is hamstrung by a\u00a0severe lack of clear data from the CDC<\/a>.<\/p>\n The bottom line:<\/strong>\u00a0“The vaccines are still having a positive impact. But we’re painting this train as it goes 180 miles an hour,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy.<\/p>\n\n
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