{"id":84977,"date":"2021-09-20T08:41:58","date_gmt":"2021-09-20T12:41:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=84977"},"modified":"2021-09-20T08:41:58","modified_gmt":"2021-09-20T12:41:58","slug":"former-lehman-trader-on-chinas-lehman-moment","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/?p=84977","title":{"rendered":"Former Lehman Trader On &#8220;China&#8217;s Lehman Moment&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em>By Larry McDonald, former trader at Lehman Brothers, author of &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/dp\/B002HHPVHQ\/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&amp;btkr=1\">A Colossal Failure of Common Sense<\/a>&#8221; and publisher of the Bear Traps Report<\/em><!--more--><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/13-year-yesterday-wow.jpg?itok=71AC2b8a\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/13-year-yesterday-wow.jpg?itok=71AC2b8a\" data-link-option=\"0\"><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/13-year-yesterday-wow.jpg?itok=71AC2b8a\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"784\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"13bf0e65-cf55-4c0a-a4b8-98a10f15593a\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<p>My name is Larry McDonald, that is the UK cover above. In the years before the failure of Lehman Brothers, I ran a successful distressed credit business at what was the 4th largest investment bank in the U.S. \u2013 becoming one of the most consistently profitable traders in the fixed income division. In late 2008, early 2009 \u2013 with Patrick Robinson, we penned \u201c<strong>A Colossal Failure of Common Sense<\/strong>\u201d \u2013 the Lehman Brothers inside story. At least once a month, I tell my wife while wearing a hopeful smile \u2014<strong>\u201cif we sell a million books \u2014 we\u00b4ll break even on our Lehman stock.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0On September 15, 2008 \u2013 it all came crashing down in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history. Known as, \u201cthe week that changed the world,\u201d a very painful experience indeed. I was down on the mat looking up at the referee as he delivered the count. It was one of those fateful moments most of us face. Staring into the abyss, drenched in blood-curdling uncertainty, there are times in life when we must get up. Even when it looks like all is lost in a valley of no hope.\u00a0 Ultimately, the lucky ones learn there are valuable lessons in re-invention. The last 13 years have been a breath of fresh air.<\/p>\n<div class=\"Advert_desktop__1J5vD Advert_tablet__3QEBr Advert_mobile__1rlLc Advert_placement__1I4yb Advert_align__N0_fw\">\n<aside id=\"in-content-video\" class=\"Advert_verticallySpaced__wnPy3\">\n<div id=\"google_ads_iframe_\/21841313772,21778456762\/zerohedge\/in_content_video_0__container__\"><\/div>\n<\/aside>\n<\/div>\n<p><strong>Life&#8217;s Lessons<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One of the important lessons in our book comes down to how to use leading credit risk indicators? In the 2007-2010 period, the global credit risk epicenter was obviously inside the US. In the 2011-2013 period, Europe\u00b4s banks were the focus during the Grexit panic. In recent years, Asia has become far more interesting, a new epicenter has been formed.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bank%20cds.jpg?itok=gnm4Vj6O\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/bank%20cds.jpg?itok=gnm4Vj6O\" data-link-option=\"0\"><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/bank%20cds.jpg?itok=gnm4Vj6O\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"267\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"50a617cd-65b2-4607-8af6-86e114aed45d\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As far back as the spring of 2007, U.S. banks began to underperform financial institutions in Asia. By now, everyone knows most of the subprime mortgage credit risk was inside the USA with domestic banks more exposed than other banks around the world. Notice above, Goldman Sachs (purple above) 5 year CDS (the cost of default protection on the bank), began to meaningfully divergence from Standard Chartered.\u00a0Standard Chartered PLC is an international banking group operating principally in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The company has far more credit risk exposure to China \u2013 Asia than U.S. banks. It is clear above, more than 12 months prior to Lehman\u00b4s failure, banks in the USA were\u00a0<strong>dramatically underperforming<\/strong>\u00a0from a credit risk perspective. In other words, in 2007 \u2013 the cost of purchasing credit default protection on Goldman Sachs was far more expensive than the bank&#8217;s Asian peers. Indeed,\u00a0<strong>elephants leave footprints<\/strong>\u00a0\u2013 when large hedge funds see credit risk \u2013 they start placing bets months if NOT years before a credit event. The credit market sniffed out Lehman\u00b4s demise months BEFORE equity investors got the joke.<\/p>\n<p>Now, let us think of Asia in the summer of 2015. The Fed was attempting \u201cliftoff\u201d \u2013 their first rate hike since 2004. Finally, in December of 2015, the Fed hiked rates 25bps for the first time in eleven years. In the process, as the central bank prepared the world for the now-infamous rate hike. In just six months the dollar ripped from 80 (July 2014) to 100 (March 2015). Emerging markets were in flames, the Fed had triggered a global dollar crisis. More than $1T left China (the country\u00b4s fx reserves were on the run). The world was in a real currency devaluation panic, with Asia wearing the epicenter title this time around.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Credit Risk, the Asia Epicenter 2015-2021<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/5yr%20cds%202.jpg?itok=Ky9XMJ9P\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/5yr%20cds%202.jpg?itok=Ky9XMJ9P\" data-link-option=\"0\"><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/5yr%20cds%202.jpg?itok=Ky9XMJ9P\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"268\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"b4600f9c-72f3-46ba-858a-fa5eada5320f\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<p>During 2015, the China currency devaluation crisis picked up steam in September and came to risk climax in Q3. But months before, the cost of default protection on Asia\u00b4s Standard Chartered began to sharply diverge from Goldman Sachs in the U.S. Once again, credit risk was screaming \u201cthere is a problem\u201d in May 2015, by September the S&amp;P 500 lost 16%. In 2007, Goldman\u2019s credit risk was so telling. Then, eight years later \u2013 banks in Asia would wear the credit risk epicenter title. Fast forward to 2021,\u00a0Evergrande headlines are all the media rage, especially with the Lehman, the lucky 13th anniversary this week.<\/p>\n<p>But, what are credit markets telling us this time? As you can see above \u2013 far right. Credit risk is calm on Asia banks with exposure to China, no difference to speak of. Central bank liquidity is so abundant, there is NO way Lehman would have failed today.\u00a0Free markets no more.\u00a0<strong>Adam Smith has one (invisible) hand tied behind his back.<\/strong>\u00a0We have unintended consequences as far as the eye can see with Uncle Sam\u2019s fingerprints on every street corner.<\/p>\n<p><strong>The Trillion Dollar a Day Gravy Train<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The flood of cash in U.S. interest-rate markets pushed the amount of money that investors are parking at a major central bank facility to yet another all-time high \u2013 every day a new high indeed. In recent weeks,\u00a0<strong>every day\u00a0<\/strong>more than Eighty participants have been lining up for nearly $1.2 trillion at the Federal Reserve\u2019s overnight reverse repurchase agreement facility. Large counterparties like money-market funds can place cash with the central bank.\u00a0<strong>This easy money gravy train is hiding the next Lehman Brothers, all embraced in deception.<\/strong>\u00a0In terms of bond yields, let\u2019s look around the planet. In the U.S.,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/85-high-yield-bonds-have-negative-real-yield\">close to 90% of the junk bond market is trading below CPI inflation\u00a0<\/a>of 5.3% (highest since the early 90s).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/high%20yield%20negative%20real%20yield_1.jpg?itok=qbY-MwmX\" data-image-external-href=\"\" data-image-href=\"\/s3\/files\/inline-images\/high%20yield%20negative%20real%20yield_1.jpg?itok=qbY-MwmX\" data-link-option=\"0\"><picture><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"inline-images image-style-inline-images\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/high%20yield%20negative%20real%20yield_1.jpg?itok=qbY-MwmX\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"285\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"adeaa95e-c048-4515-bfe1-cb84cee274e0\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><\/picture><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Over the last 50 years, the highest this number ever reached was 7%. China\u2019s high yield credit market is just 8-10% away from its March 2020 lows in bond prices \u2013 highs in yields.<strong>\u00a0All of which begs the question \u2013 How can the U.S.-centric JNK Junk Bond ETF yield 4.4% while China\u00b4s junk bonds are offering 10-12% cash flows?!<\/strong>\u00a0Always with an important lens \u2013 our friend, Jens Nordvig reminds us<em>\u00a0\u2013 \u201cforeign involvement is small in China. It is true that the high-yield bond market has a sizable USD component (mostly foreign). But relative to the US, where subprime exposure was sold around the world, it is a much more local (controllable) system.\u201d\u00a0<\/em>It has been clear for months, there is Evergrande credit contagion \u2013 it\u2019s just inside China at the moment (as for how Evergrande contagion could spread to the rest of the world, read &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/how-contagion-evergrandes-default-will-spread-rest-world\">This Is How Contagion From Evergrande&#8217;s Default Will Spread To The Rest Of The World<\/a>&#8220;).<\/p>\n<figure class=\"caption caption-img inline-images image-style-inline-images\" role=\"group\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/assets.zerohedge.com\/s3fs-public\/styles\/inline_image_mobile\/public\/inline-images\/evergrande%20teaser%202.jpg?itok=D0RFkEBk\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" data-entity-type=\"file\" data-entity-uuid=\"8b42a9fe-bd6e-4eaf-9420-a90c4442ebaf\" data-responsive-image-style=\"inline_images\" \/><figcaption><em>Security personnel forming a human chain as they guard Evergrande&#8217;s headquarters, where people gathered to demand repayment of loans and financial products in Shenzhen on Monday<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><strong>An Unsustainable Reach for Yield Comes with a Price \u2013 It is NOT FREE<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Each year that goes by while central banks force investors to reach for yield \u2013 any paltry plus return on capital will do these days \u2013 complacency builds over time to an extreme \u2013 dangerous level.\u00a0 Mark my words \u2013 there were dozens of Bernie Madoffs, Al Dunlaps, and Jeff Skillings sipping mint juleps in the Hamptons and the beaches of the south of France this summer.\u00a0<strong>Central bankers are these guys\u2019 best friends, that is the reality no one wants to admit<\/strong>. As long as central banks do NOT allow the cleansing process of the business cycle to function over longer and longer periods of time \u2013 credit risk will continue to build under the surface. Each month, week, and year we allow this charade to move forth \u2013 the corners capital flows into are deeper and deeper soaked with moral hazard toxicity. Today\u00b4s players on the field make \u201cDick Fuld\u201d \u2013 former Lehman CEO \u2013\u00a0 look like a choir boy walking out of Sunday mass. The coming event will dwarf what was \u2013 \u201cA Colossal Failure of Common Sense.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>___<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/former-lehman-trader-chinas-lehman-moment\">https:\/\/www.zerohedge.com\/markets\/former-lehman-trader-chinas-lehman-moment<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>By Larry McDonald, former trader at Lehman Brothers, author of &#8220;A Colossal Failure of Common Sense&#8221; and publisher of the Bear Traps Report<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84977","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84977","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84977"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84977\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84977"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84977"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/stateofthenation.co\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84977"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}