I have always been inclined to agree with Alexander Mercouris when he has described Wagner as a creation of Russian military intelligence/GRU, with Prigozhin acting as a frontman. A frontman with delusions of grandeur – perhaps. A frontman with utility insofar as he spreads disinformation to Ukraine and the West, whose media developed an obsession with his every Telegram rant – very possibly. A frontman who nonetheless had his own relationship with Wagner troops, forged in the Bakhmut meat grinder, and very real (even legitimate) beef with the Russia MoD and their supply of materiel – so it would seem.

But if Wagner, with its opaque command structure and powerful internal esprit de corps, wasn’t under the direct control of Prigozhin – how to explain what just happened? Perhaps this was an explosion into the open of very real disagreements within the intel/military brass. Perhaps it is a power-play against a handful of individuals – above all Shoigu – who has more enemies than merely Prigozhin himself.

And yet…that doesn’t explain the fact that in his most recent rants, Prigozhin went so far as to call into question the whole premise of the SMO. With every significant figure involved in the SMO, from Surovikin to Kadyrov, are rallying round Putin and expressing outrage at any moves to settle personal scores in the middle of war with a foreign power, I find it hard to believe that the GRU would have been behind it.

So we are back with Prigozhin and his festering feud with Shoigu, with the added accelerant of the impending deadline for Wagner being folded under the wing of the MoD. And then we have the last few hours, and Lukashenko’s negotiated settlement, reportedly with Prigozhin skeedaddling to Belarus and Wagner presumably joining the RuAF. Rather a lot of drama for that.

And then you have the apparent destruction of 5 Russian helicopters, including 3 very valuable EW Mi-8s. That’s 11 pilots and 8 other crewmembers total. Can the Russian military brass, and Putin himself, really let that slide because a valued but unpredictable mercenary leader had a hissy-fit over supplies and treatment of his men? (Another entirely possible reason for Prigozhin’s attitude could be that the MoD was far more cavalier in their disposal of Wagner lives than their own consistently cautious shepherding of their own professional forces…9 months of bitter fighting as a kind of PMC Dirty Dozen/Suicide Squad followed by not receiving the cash/garlands/ticker tape parades he felt were his and his men’s due may have pushed an already unstable Prigozhin over the edge)…

After entertaining the possibility this was an elaborate diversion in keeping with some of the earlier inflammatory, obfuscatory rants Prigozhin had let loose, I don’t see that as being likely now. Not remotely likely, in fact – no government self-inflicts such wounds for purposes of disinformation campaigning.

Maybe Putin and his circle simply tolerated Prigozhin because of Wagner’s undoubted value in the field (remember the recent footage of a Ukr officer encouraging his men by telling them Wagner had left their sector?) – turning an incautious blind eye to the clear signs he was getting too big for his boots and obsessively dwelling on personal grievances at a time of war. That still doesn’t explain any potential GRU connection, but frankly at this point I’m not sure what to think – and I’m not even sure things will clear up entirely over the coming days.

One thing is certain – this is not good for Putin, Russia, its standing with its allies, or the SMO. Self-inflicted or otherwise, it makes them look weak and unable to manage dissenting figures or voices. Having killed actual Russian servicemen, I can scarcely believe Prigozhin will be allowed simply to bugger off to a Belorussian exile. But then I didn’t think Wagner would ‘rise up’ against the Russian state, either!

(With apologies if this post doesn’t reach even a tentative conclusion – I just wanted to share my thoughts and reflections, and welcome those of everyone else, in one of the few places where serious debate is possible without the distorting lens of pro/anti nonsense!)

Comment posted by Tempestteacup

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https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/06/from-pugachev-to-lebed-the-muzhik-rebellion-fizzles-out-without-bloodshed-prigozhin-to-exile.html