It’s actually worse than you say.

Russia clearly anticipated this…

http://www.cbr.ru/eng/press/PR/?file=24022022_185158FINSTAB_E25022022_140235.htm

That was a month ago.

Sure you can buy rubles on FX but there simply isn’t the LQ for gas. Few million $s a day, sure… $500m? No chance.

They also can’t earn rubles by selling Adidas or VWs as they cuckstropped out of the Russian market. So the only way to get rubles is via their central bank at an extortionate rate.

But the rate changes… You swap hundreds of millions of Euros for rubles and the Euro falls… So you get fewer rubles. It’s effectively compound interest.

Meanwhile as you say the only way out is to militarily defeat Russia. Not merely defeat them in Ukraine. Even there Nato relies completely on airpower. Whilst the Russians appear to have had fun almost trolling with their Iskanders targetting individual SAM systems. The message sent is clear.. Your ABM systems are trash and your airbases would burn. Not that the West has much ABM in the first place.

Also sanctions themselves are largely pointless, and self defeating. Long standing sanctions on Cuba, Venezuela etc are regularly busted using crypto. By accepting bitcoin Russia might as well have said ‘here’s how you get around sanctions’. Bitcoin offers pseudonomity, Ethereum offers true anonymity for transactions through Railgun app. Doubt it’ll be long before they announce they’ll accept Eth too. Sberbank’s imminent stablecoin certainly hints at this.

Question is how low can the Euro go? Having to swap 2% of GDP into another currency at an extortionate rate will have effects. Weak Euro is inflationary and the WEF types assume they can print and borrow their way out of trouble. But the great circle of capital is broken. Russia is offering 20% with a strengthening currency, the Euro area sometimes negative rates with a weakening one.

Who holds the counterparty risk to gas futures which won’t be fulfilled? Paper gold, silver and other commodities? There’s only so many times you can wind back LME days before it’s the exchange which is destroyed.

Meanwhile regime change? Yeah we’ll see it all right. Once base rates are jacked and millions in the West lose their homes the ejection of our current dangerous brand of idiot elites is a certainty. South Korea just elected a government on an antifeminist ticket… This will sweep the board. Political parties across Europe have no defence, except for mean tweets, as they’ve only selected cucks and feminists for a generation.

Interesting times.

___
https://tomluongo.me/2022/03/28/got-gold-rubles-russia-just-broke-the-back-of-the-west/