Great Question: What is the Plan?

Posted by Larchmonter445 on April 07, 2022

We read Russian MOD moves as if we can conjure The Plan from the moves. But, foremost, the moves have Operational Logic and Response.
As Andrei M. clues us in, look at the logistics (positives of Russia) versus (negatives of Ukraine). What are the Russians doing and how are they doing it? What have the Ukies lost and how much more can they lose?
Russia is chopping down the forest of Ukie weapons, resupply, fuel, radars and communications, and unit coherence. Across the whole of Ukraine, depots necessary for Ukie operations are destroyed. Very few remain.
Positionally, Russia has forced the Ukies to overload manpower and heavy weapons around Kiev. Kharkiv has been frozen, amplified by fanatical teraborona forces.
Meanwhile, Russia was able to form cauldrons around Donbass, while LDNR forces swept north creating the potential of some smaller cauldrons when the time comes to ‘boil” the Ukies. They remain trapped in their fortified positions, immobile and at the mercy of never being resupplied with water, food, medicine, fuel and ammo.

The key to the success of this war is logistical capability. The Russians have uninterrupted, endless supply, with many means and routes to accomplish logistical support to its own, to LDNR, to Dagestani and Chechen forces. The Ukies have, at best, a trickle of resupply in some areas, but none to the 100,000 troops in the Donbass cauldron.

We have the battle of Mariupol as prime example. It was encircled with 15,000 fighters, then 25,000 entered from the flanks, fought into the center of the city, and now are working from the flanks of the big holdout enclave Azovstal Steel Works. For more than a month, the Ukies could not be resupplied. They actually had to abandon their human shield hostages, the citizens of the city. They had no water, food or medicine for them.
The same will happen to Odessa and Nikolaev. Their fuel is being destroyed. What food, water, ammo they have stored is all they will have when the Russian troops come.

There was so little logistical planning by the Ukies and the US handlers in terms of what kind of war Russia would bring to Ukraine that it is fairly clear, they thought only a war in Donbass was likely. Along the Azov and Black Sea land bridge to Crimea, they thought they could hold back the Russians in the South, get resupplied and not lose Novorossiya.

The US still has personnel in the bombed out Ochakov naval base and in Mariupol’s underground bomb shelter at Azovstal. They must have thought resupply from the North or West would save them. The Ukies did have a huge fighting force, 20,000 in the Azov brigade, plus regular Ukie marines. But, they ran out of buildings in which to hide and shoot from, human shields to hide behind, and vital logistical supplies.

Each area of major combat now presents fresh or refreshed Russian troops, massive increase in weapons and ammo, an encircled Ukie army, isolated from any hope of rescue, living on dwindling logistical caches.
What can we say about this Operation’s Planned objective? Total destruction of Ukraine’s military power and potential to ever exist again. Then look at what that leaves the state of Ukraine? Borders it cannot control. A population that cannot be controlled. In other words, a stateless Ukraine is a former country not a future country.
The Plan looks to be to eliminate Ukraine totally. To replace it with 6-7 small states, all controlled by Russia.
This also is the only way to accomplish denazification.

Ukraine, the idea, has to be destroyed, like its military.
Russia is well on its way to destroying completely the Ukie military. The state will fall on its own when the shooting stops. By depriving the Ukies of logistical supply and resupply, Russia is moving beyond military victory to the political goal of erasing Ukraine forever.

Judge them by their deeds. We understand how the Russians are winning the war. We see what winning means in their lexicon of 2022.

The US, NATO and EU bet the house on this war. It looks like Putin now holds the deed and will turn it into a new sub-division. The old address will be taken off the books.