See You in September, Mr Zelensky!
Video Rebel’s Blog
The Ukrainians have built their third army since the Special Military Operation began on February 24, 2022. They have lost between 300,000 and 350,000 soldiers to death and an equal number maimed. At the insistence of NATO, they recently began an offensive. They have lost 8,000 soldiers and more than 186 tanks and 418 armored vehicles in that wasted effort. The current kill ratio is ten Ukrainians for each Russian soldier.
After killing 52,000 Ukrainian soldiers at Bakhmut, Wagner forces were removed for a much needed rest. They have announced that starting on August 5, 2023 they will be operating from Russian territory north of Kharkov. Yegeny Prighozin and a token force of 3,000 men are already at the new front. To the west of Wagner is Akhmat Chechen Special Forces who are also experienced at taking down cities. This is a clear signal to NATO and to the Ukraine that the Russians plan to take Kharkov starting in August though they might first battle the forces outside the city before entering.
Of course the Russians will have to supplement Akhmat and Wagner with regular forces.
And to the West of Akhmat is Belarus. Belarus will likely be asked to participate in a limited fashion in order to cut supply lines to Sumy and Kharkov.. They are close Kiev so the Ukrainians will have to send what is left of their reserves to the new line from south of the Belarus border and further east to Kharkov. Sumy is the province directly west of Kharkov. Taking Sumy or at least getting it under Russian artillery fire control will cut Kharkov off from rail and truck supplies as well as electricity.
The Ukraine sent 30,000 men to be trained for 3 weeks or so to become the Ukraine’s new offensive forces and reserves. There are another 30,000 or so Ukrainian men from age 16 to 60 who have been kidnapped off the streets, given 3 days training and sent to fill in for men lost in previous offensives. It has been said that for $12,000 US a Ukrainian man could bribe the commissars and get an exemption from military service.
In WW II millions of American men volunteered but their parents and loved ones demanded legislation be passed saying that no American soldier could see combat before completing 6 months of training. Even, if you never served as a soldier, you can see the difference between the training levels of then and now, 6 months vs 3 weeks or 3 days. Of course the professional Ukrainian army did have training and were well armed. But they were killed and maimed and their military equipment destroyed. On May 14, 2023 the Russian Ministry of Defense listed these Ukrainian losses: 425 aircraft, 231 helicopters, 4,135 UAVs, 421 Surface to Air Missile Systems, 9,159 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,100 MLRS systems, 4,813 artillery and mortar pieces and 10,193 special military vehicles.
Now the Ukrainians must supply parts and ammunition for dozens of different NATO systems. This is a logistics nightmare given that Russians are striking the Ukraine every night blowing up warehouses, munition dumps, transport centers and air defenses.
When this offensive is over, the Russians will continue to use satellite data, drones and human intelligence to locate Ukrainian armor, artillery and soldiers. The decline in Ukrainian air defenses means the Russians can use KA-52 helicopters to attack Ukrainian positions up to 8 kilometers distant. They will continue to use jets to deliver 500 and 1,500 Kg (1,100 and 3,300 pound) Guided Glide Control bombs.
The Russians call this tactic “reducing their numbers.” Until August the Russians on the Donbass frontlines will reduce Ukrainian numbers. The Ukrainians have been forced to pull brigades from reserve locations near Nicolaev and from Pokrvosk to Kramatorsk. Nicolaev is the city above Odessa that protects it. And Kramatorsk is below Kharkov. The Russians will spend their time until August 5th reducing Ukrainian forces in this area. The Russians have been using a new version of their Lancet drone to kill Ukrainian armor and artillery. There is a video below in references showing just how effective they are. The Russians have built new drone factories and the Iranians have been rumored to have signed a contract to deliver 15,000 drones to China just in case America goes crazy over Taiwan. The Iranians are Russian strategic partners and will be supplying them with drones for August and September.
The US and NATO are running dangerously low on supplies they can send. The Clintons passed NAFTA (North American Free Trade Agreement) in 1993 which has closed 80,000 US manufacturing plants while accepting 80 million legal and illegal immigrants sine then. If we ever went to war with China, we would have to close our hospitals for lack of antibiotics and other drugs.
This morning a group of 20 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered. They had been asked to mount an offensive on Russian lines but had to walk past the bodies of fellow members of their brigade to reach the frontline where their commander decided together with his men to surrender.
If Ukrainian soldiers ever learned that Ukrainian and European doctors were harvesting organs from wounded Ukrainian soldiers for sale to wealthy Europeans, Israelis and Middle Easterners, the war would end very quickly.
Otherwise, 30 days from August 5th, I would expect Odessa and Kharkov to be surrounded. And I would expect either Nazi elements in the Kiev regime to kidnap Zelensky and take his billions away from him or angry soldiers from the front to kill Zelensky. In any event his days are numbered. I remember a CIA man using a fake FBI ID card telling drug runners back in Arkansas in the late 1980s “that we do not have living liabilities.”
Zelensky ought to be aware that he has a precarious future.
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https://vidrebel.wordpress.com/2023/06/17/see-you-in-september-mr-zelensky/